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Profile likelihood confidence intervals are a robust alternative to Wald's method if the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator are not met. However, the constrained optimization problem defining profile likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-10 Samuel M. Fischer , Mark A. Lewis

Epidemiologic screening programs often make use of tests with small, but non-zero probabilities of misdiagnosis. In this article, we assume the target population is finite with a fixed number of true cases, and that we apply an imperfect…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-22 Lin Ge , Yuzi Zhang , Lance A. Waller , Robert H. Lyles

A large class of problems in sciences and engineering can be formulated as the general problem of constructing random intervals with pre-specified coverage probabilities for the mean. Wee propose a general approach for statistical inference…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-11 Xinjia Chen

Sequential trial emulation (STE) is an approach to estimating causal treatment effects by emulating a sequence of target trials from observational data. In STE, inverse probability weighting is commonly utilised to address time-varying…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-10 Juliette M. Limozin , Shaun R. Seaman , Li Su

Generalized linear mixed models are useful in studying hierarchical data with possibly non-Gaussian responses. However, the intractability of likelihood functions poses challenges for estimation. We develop a new method suitable for this…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-26 Zexi Song , Zhiqiang Tan

Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE) has many good properties. For example, the asymptotic variance of MLE solution attains equality of the asymptotic Cram{\'e}r-Rao lower bound (efficiency bound), which is the minimum possible variance for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-05 Song Liu , Takafumi Kanamori , Wittawat Jitkrittum , Yu Chen

We propose a general approach to construct weighted likelihood estimating equations with the aim of obtaining robust parameter estimates. We modify the standard likelihood equations by incorporating a weight that reflects the statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-24 Claudio Agostinelli , Ayanendranath Basu , Giulia Bertagnolli , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

This paper describes three methods for carrying out non-asymptotic inference on partially identified parameters that are solutions to a class of optimization problems. Applications in which the optimization problems arise include estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Joel L. Horowitz , Sokbae Lee

Introductory texts on statistics typically only cover the classical "two sigma" confidence interval for the mean value and do not describe methods to obtain confidence intervals for other estimators. The present technical report fills this…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-11 Christoph Dalitz

Any supervised machine learning analysis is required to provide an estimate of the out-of-sample predictive performance. However, it is imperative to also provide a quantification of the uncertainty of this performance in the form of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Konstantinos Paraschakis , Andrea Castellani , Giorgos Borboudakis , Ioannis Tsamardinos

The problem of nonlinear functional of parameters, such as differential entropy, has received much attention in information theory and statistics. In many situations, prior information about the parameters is available in the form of order…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Somnath Mandal , Lakshmi Kanta Patra

This manuscript studies a general approach to construct confidence sets for the solution of stochastic optimization, rendering empirical risk minimization as special cases. Statistical inference for stochastic optimization poses significant…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-22 Kenta Takatsu , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

High-dimensional statistical inference with general estimating equations are challenging and remain less explored. In this paper, we study two problems in the area: confidence set estimation for multiple components of the model parameters,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-28 Jinyuan Chang , Song Xi Chen , Cheng Yong Tang , Tong Tong Wu

The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a commonly used method for finding the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in a mixture model via coordinate ascent. A serious pitfall with the algorithm is that in the case of…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-31 Adrian O'Hagan , Arthur White

This paper develops asymptotic theory of integrals of empirical quantile functions with respect to random weight functions, which is an extension of classical $L$-statistics. They appear when sample trimming or Winsorization is applied to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-18 Tetsuya Kaji

We study the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for general latent-variable models under (i) distributional misspecification and (ii) nonidentifiability induced by a group action. We formulate EM on the quotient parameter space and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Koustav Mallik

Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are widely used for analyzing time series data. However, standard likelihood-based inference methodology for ARMA models has avoidable limitations. We show that currently accepted standards for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Jesse Wheeler , Edward L. Ionides

Modern problems in statistics tend to include estimators of high computational complexity and with complicated distributions. Statistical inference on such estimators usually relies on asymptotic normality assumptions, however, such…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-08 Eyal Fisher , Regev Schweiger , Saharon Rosset

In this paper, we consider a weighted local linear estimator based on the inverse selection probability for nonparametric regression with missing covariates at random. The asymptotic distribution of the maximal deviation between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-03 Li Cai , Lijie Gu , Qihua Wang , Suojin Wang

We consider estimation and inference on average treatment effects under unconfoundedness conditional on the realizations of the treatment variable and covariates. Given nonparametric smoothness and/or shape restrictions on the conditional…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-04 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár