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Noting the erroneous proclivity of information-theoretic approaches, like the Akaike information criterion (AIC), to select simpler models while performing model selection with a small sample size, we address the problem of new physics…
Model selection is the problem of distinguishing competing models, perhaps featuring different numbers of parameters. The statistics literature contains two distinct sets of tools, those based on information theory such as the Akaike…
We introduce a new criterion to determine the order of an autoregressive model fitted to time series data. It has the benefits of the two well-known model selection techniques, the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information…
Robust model-fitting to spectroscopic transitions is a requirement across many fields of science. The corrected Akaike and Bayesian information criteria (AICc and BIC) are most frequently used to select the optimal number of fitting…
We have recently proposed a new information-based approach to model selection, the Frequentist Information Criterion (FIC), that reconciles information-based and frequentist inference. The purpose of this current paper is to provide a…
In the realm of the model selection context, Akaike's and Schwarz's information criteria, AIC and BIC, have been applied successfully for decades for model order identification. The Efficient Determination Criterion (EDC) is a…
AIC is commonly used for model selection but the precise value of AIC has no direct interpretation. We are interested in quantifying a difference of risks between two models. This may be useful for both an explanatory point of view or for…
For prediction models developed on clustered data that do not account for cluster heterogeneity in model parameterization, it is crucial to use cluster-based validation to assess model generalizability on unseen clusters. This paper…
It has been shown that AIC-type criteria are asymptotically efficient selectors of the tuning parameter in non-concave penalized regression methods under the assumption that the population variance is known or that a consistent estimator is…
Akaike's information criterion (AIC) is a measure of the quality of a statistical model for a given set of data. We can determine the best statistical model for a particular data set by the minimization of the AIC. Since we need to evaluate…
Transient recurring phenomena are ubiquitous in many scientific fields like neuroscience and meteorology. Time inhomogenous Vector Autoregressive Models (VAR) may be used to characterize peri-event system dynamics associated with such…
Information criteria have had a profound impact on modern ecological science. They allow researchers to estimate which probabilistic approximating models are closest to the generating process. Unfortunately, information criterion comparison…
Classical confidence intervals after best subset selection are widely implemented in statistical software and are routinely used to guide practitioners in scientific fields to conclude significance. However, there are increasing concerns in…
This research paper presents an approach to enhancing the predictive capability of architects in the design and assurance of systems, focusing on systems operating in dynamic and unpredictable environments. By adopting a systems approach,…
Methods for combining predictions from different models in a supervised learning setting must somehow estimate/predict the quality of a model's predictions at unknown future inputs. Many of these methods (often implicitly) make the…
In the problem of selecting variables in a multivariate linear regression model, we derive new Bayesian information criteria based on a prior mixing a smooth distribution and a delta distribution. Each of them can be interpreted as a fusion…
We propose two methods to evaluate the conditional Akaike information (cAI) for nonlinear mixed-effects models with no restriction on cluster size. Method 1 is designed for continuous data and includes formulae for the derivatives of fixed…
Geometric Akaike Information Criteria (G-AICs) for generalized noise-level dependent crystallographic symmetry classifications of two-dimensional (2D) images that are more or less periodic in either two or one dimensions as well as Akaike…
There are several methods for model selection in cosmology which have at least two major goals, that of finding the correct model or predicting well. In this work we discuss through a study of well-known model selection methods like Akaike…
When making predictions about ecosystems, we often have available a number of different ecosystem models that attempt to represent their dynamics in a detailed mechanistic way. Each of these can be used as simulators of large-scale…