Related papers: Productive Ecosystems and the Arrow of Development

In this paper, we demonstrate how multiport network theory can be used as a powerful modeling tool in economics. The critical insight is using the port concept to pair the flow of goods (the electrical current) with the agent's incentive…

Recent genomic and bioinformatic advances have motivated the development of numerous random network models purporting to describe graphs of biological, technological, and sociological origin. The success of a model has been evaluated by how…

We define data-driven macroeconomic regimes by clustering the relative performance in time of indices belonging to different asset classes. We then investigate lead-lag relationships within the regimes identified. Our study unravels market…

We propose a unified modelling framework that theoretically justifies the main empirical regularities characterizing the international trade network. Each country is associated to a Polya urn whose composition controls the propensity of the…

A dynamic model of the product lifecycle of (nearly) homogeneous durables in polypoly markets is established. It describes the concurrent evolution of the unit sales and price of durable goods. The theory is based on the idea that the sales…

When making predictions about ecosystems, we often have available a number of different ecosystem models that attempt to represent their dynamics in a detailed mechanistic way. Each of these can be used as simulators of large-scale…

Modern ecology has re-emphasized the need for a quantitative understanding of the original 'survival of the fittest theme' based on analyzis of the intricate trade-offs between competing evolutionary strategies that characterize the…

An economic system is an exemplar of a complex system in which all agents interact simultaneously. Interactions between countries have generally been studied using the flow of resources across diverse trade networks, in which the degree of…

The notion of (auto) catalytic networks has become a cornerstone in understanding the possibility of a sudden dramatic increase of diversity in biological evolution as well as in the evolution of social and economical systems. Here we study…

Predicting the fate of ecologies is a daunting, albeit extremely important, task. As part of this task one needs to develop an understanding of the organization, hierarchies, and correlations among the species forming the ecology. Focusing…

A generative recurrent neural network is quickly trained in an unsupervised manner to model popular reinforcement learning environments through compressed spatio-temporal representations. The world model's extracted features are fed into…

In this paper investigations by the same authors on environmental issues concerning the control of the pollution produced by human activities have been extended to include costs related to environmental interventions. The proposed model…

We propose a financial liquidity policy sharing method for firm-to-firm supply networks, introducing a scalable autonomous control function for viable complex adaptive supply networks. Cooperation and competition in supply chains is…

The global food system faces various endogeneous and exogeneous, biotic and abiotic risk factors, including a rising human population, higher population densities, price volatility and climate change. Quantitative models play an important…

This article proposes predictive economics as a distinct analytical perspective within economics, grounded in machine learning and centred on predictive accuracy rather than causal identification. Drawing on the instrumentalist tradition…

Discrete-choice models are used in economics, marketing and revenue management to predict customer purchase probabilities, say as a function of prices and other features of the offered assortment. While they have been shown to be…

For centuries, national economies created wealth by engaging in international trade and production. The resulting international supply networks not only increase wealth for countries, but also create systemic risk: economic shocks,…

Mathematical method based on a direct or indirect analysis of growth rates is described. It is shown how simple assumptions and a relatively easy analysis can be used to describe mathematically complicated trends and to predict growth. Only…

The problem of predicting links in large networks is an important task in a variety of practical applications, including social sciences, biology and computer security. In this paper, statistical techniques for link prediction based on the…

We study the Tangled Nature model of macro evolution and demonstrate that the co-evolutionary dynamics produces an increasingly correlated core of well occupied types. At the same time the entire configuration of types becomes increasing…