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Related papers: A Causal Bootstrap

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Many causal estimands are only partially identifiable since they depend on the unobservable joint distribution between potential outcomes. Stratification on pretreatment covariates can yield sharper bounds; however, unless the covariates…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-19 Wenlong Ji , Lihua Lei , Asher Spector

We propose a bootstrap-based calibrated projection procedure to build confidence intervals for single components and for smooth functions of a partially identified parameter vector in moment (in)equality models. The method controls…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-03 Hiroaki Kaido , Francesca Molinari , Jörg Stoye

Empirical best linear unbiased prediction (EBLUP) method uses a linear mixed model in combining information from different sources of information. This method is particularly useful in small area problems. The variability of an EBLUP is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Snigdhansu Chatterjee , Partha Lahiri , Huilin Li

This work introduces the causal bootstrap, a framework for bounding smeared spectral observables from finite non-perturbative Euclidean data. The method optimizes over the convex set of positive spectral densities compatible with the data…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2026-05-21 Ryan Abbott , Sarah Fields , William I. Jay , Patrick Oare , Matteo Saccardi

As a classical problem, covariance estimation has drawn much attention from the statistical community for decades. Much work has been done under the frequentist and the Bayesian frameworks. Aiming to quantify the uncertainty of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-17 W. Jenny Shi , Jan Hannig , Randy C. S. Lai , Thomas C. M. Lee

Simulator-based models are models for which the likelihood is intractable but simulation of synthetic data is possible. They are often used to describe complex real-world phenomena, and as such can often be misspecified in practice.…

We establish the validity of bootstrap methods for empirical likelihood (EL) inference under the density ratio model (DRM). In particular, we prove that the bootstrap maximum EL estimators share the same limiting distribution as their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-24 Weiwei Zhuang , Weiqi Yang , Jiahua Chen

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

In a two-stage cluster sampling procedure, $n$ random populations are drawn independently from independent populations and a sub-sample of observations is taken in each of them. The estimator of the general mean of the observed variables is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Odile Pons

We investigate properties of a bootstrap-based methodology for testing hypotheses about equality of certain characteristics of the distributions between different populations in the context of functional data. The suggested testing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-29 Efstathios Paparoditis , Theofanis Sapatinas

Process mining extracts value from the traces recorded in the event logs of IT-systems, with process discovery the task of inferring a process model for a log emitted by some unknown system. Generalization is one of the quality criteria…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-03-29 Artem Polyvyanyy , Alistair Moffat , Luciano García-Bañuelos

In machine learning, an agent needs to estimate uncertainty to efficiently explore and adapt and to make effective decisions. A common approach to uncertainty estimation maintains an ensemble of models. In recent years, several approaches…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-09 Vikranth Dwaracherla , Zheng Wen , Ian Osband , Xiuyuan Lu , Seyed Mohammad Asghari , Benjamin Van Roy

In non-linear estimations, it is common to assess sampling uncertainty by bootstrap inference. For complex models, this can be computationally intensive. This paper combines optimization with resampling: turning stochastic optimization into…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-09 Jean-Jacques Forneron

A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Ellis Scharfenaker , Duncan K. Foley

We propose a coupled bootstrap (CB) method for the test error of an arbitrary algorithm that estimates the mean in a Poisson sequence, often called the Poisson means problem. The idea behind our method is to generate two carefully-designed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-20 Natalia L. Oliveira , Jing Lei , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Starting from considerations about meaning and subsequent use of asymmetric uncertainty intervals of experimental results, we review the issue of uncertainty propagation. We show that, using a probabilistic approach (the so-called Bayesian…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 G. D'Agostini , M. Raso

Machine learning models are increasingly used to produce predictions that serve as input data in subsequent statistical analyses. For example, computer vision predictions of economic and environmental indicators based on satellite imagery…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 Dan M. Kluger , Kerri Lu , Tijana Zrnic , Sherrie Wang , Stephen Bates

In reinforcement learning, it is typical to use the empirically observed transitions and rewards to estimate the value of a policy via either model-based or Q-fitting approaches. Although straightforward, these techniques in general yield…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-28 Ilya Kostrikov , Ofir Nachum

Discovery of an accurate causal Bayesian network structure from observational data can be useful in many areas of science. Often the discoveries are made under uncertainty, which can be expressed as probabilities. To guide the use of such…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-12-27 Fattaneh Jabbari , Mahdi Pakdaman Naeini , Gregory F. Cooper

Considering the increasing size of available data, the need for statistical methods that control the finite sample bias is growing. This is mainly due to the frequent settings where the number of variables is large and allowed to increase…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-12 Stéphane Guerrier , Mucyo Karemera , Samuel Orso , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser