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State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-11-04 Roger Frigola , Yutian Chen , Carl E. Rasmussen

Exact Gaussian Process (GP) regression has O(N^3) runtime for data size N, making it intractable for large N. Many algorithms for improving GP scaling approximate the covariance with lower rank matrices. Other work has exploited structure…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-09-24 Elad Gilboa , Yunus Saatçi , John P. Cunningham

A recent novel extension of multi-output Gaussian processes handles heterogeneous outputs assuming that each output has its own likelihood function. It uses a vector-valued Gaussian process prior to jointly model all likelihoods' parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-15 Juan-José Giraldo , Mauricio A. Álvarez

The combination of inducing point methods with stochastic variational inference has enabled approximate Gaussian Process (GP) inference on large datasets. Unfortunately, the resulting predictive distributions often exhibit substantially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-29 Martin Jankowiak , Geoff Pleiss , Jacob R. Gardner

Gaussian processes~(Kriging) are interpolating data-driven models that are frequently applied in various disciplines. Often, Gaussian processes are trained on datasets and are subsequently embedded as surrogate models in optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-17 Artur M. Schweidtmann , Dominik Bongartz , Daniel Grothe , Tim Kerkenhoff , Xiaopeng Lin , Jaromil Najman , Alexander Mitsos

Conventional variational autoencoders fail in modeling correlations between data points due to their use of factorized priors. Amortized Gaussian process inference through GP-VAEs has led to significant improvements in this regard, but is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-25 Metod Jazbec , Matthew Ashman , Vincent Fortuin , Michael Pearce , Stephan Mandt , Gunnar Rätsch

The sparse pseudo-input Gaussian process (SPGP) is a new approximation method for speeding up GP regression in the case of a large number of data points N. The approximation is controlled by the gradient optimization of a small set of M…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Edward Snelson , Zoubin Ghahramani

We introduce a methodology for nonlinear inverse problems using a variational Bayesian approach where the unknown quantity is a spatial field. A structured Bayesian Gaussian process latent variable model is used both to construct a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-20 Steven Atkinson , Nicholas Zabaras

While optimal input design for linear systems has been well-established, no systematic approach exists for nonlinear systems where robustness to extrapolation/interpolation errors is prioritized over minimizing estimated parameter variance.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-09 Yuhan Liu , Máté Kiss , Roland Tóth , Maarten Schoukens

Generalized additive models (GAMs) are a widely used class of models of interest to statisticians as they provide a flexible way to design interpretable models of data beyond linear models. We here propose a scalable and well-calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-31 Vincent Adam , Nicolas Durrande , ST John

Gaussian processes provide a flexible framework for spatial prediction, but their computational cost limits applicability to large-scale data with large sample size $n$. Predictive processes (PPs), a popular low-rank approximation, mitigate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-23 Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

Monitoring daily weather fields is critical for climate science, agriculture, and environmental planning, yet fully probabilistic spatio-temporal models become computationally prohibitive at continental scale. We present a case study on…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-12 Tim Gyger , Reinhard Furrer , Fabio Sigrist

Deep Gaussian Processes (DGP) are hierarchical generalizations of Gaussian Processes (GP) that have proven to work effectively on a multiple supervised regression tasks. They combine the well calibrated uncertainty estimates of GPs with the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-10 Marton Havasi , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Juan José Murillo-Fuentes

Gaussian process (GP) models provide a powerful tool for prediction but are computationally prohibitive using large data sets. In such scenarios, one has to resort to approximate methods. We derive an approximation based on a composite…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-02 Xiuming Liu , Dave Zachariah , Edith C. H. Ngai

Variable selection in Gaussian processes (GPs) is typically undertaken by thresholding the inverse lengthscales of automatic relevance determination kernels, but in high-dimensional datasets this approach can be unreliable. A more…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-25 Hugh Dance , Brooks Paige

Gaussian Processes (GPs) can be used as flexible, non-parametric function priors. Inspired by the growing body of work on Normalizing Flows, we enlarge this class of priors through a parametric invertible transformation that can be made…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-26 Juan Maroñas , Oliver Hamelijnck , Jeremias Knoblauch , Theodoros Damoulas

Gaussian graphical models are widely used to infer dependence structures. Bayesian methods are appealing to quantify uncertainty associated with structural learning, i.e., the plausibility of conditional independence statements given the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-05 Deborah Sulem , Jack Jewson , David Rossell

We present a scalable approach to performing approximate fully Bayesian inference in generic state space models. The proposed method is an alternative to particle MCMC that provides fully Bayesian inference of both the dynamic latent states…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-13 Marcel Hirt , Petros Dellaportas

Gaussian processes are a powerful class of non-linear models, but have limited applicability for larger datasets due to their high computational complexity. In such cases, approximate methods are required, for example, the recently…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Soham Mukherjee , Manfred Claassen , Paul-Christian Bürkner

We introduce a Bayesian Gaussian process latent variable model that explicitly captures spatial correlations in data using a parameterized spatial kernel and leveraging structure-exploiting algebra on the model covariance matrices for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-23 Steven Atkinson , Nicholas Zabaras
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