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The paper considers nonparametric specification tests of quantile curves for a general class of nonstationary processes. Using Bahadur representation and Gaussian approximation results for nonstationary time series, simultaneous confidence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-20 Zhou Zhou

In this paper we investigate how the bootstrap can be applied to time series regressions when the volatility of the innovations is random and non-stationary. The volatility of many economic and financial time series displays persistent…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-12 H. Peter Boswijk , Giuseppe Cavaliere , Anders Rahbek , Iliyan Georgiev

We develop a flexible spline-based Bayesian hidden Markov model stochastic weather generator to statistically model daily precipitation over time by season at individual locations. The model naturally accounts for missing data (considered…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-19 Christopher J. Paciorek

We present a new fitting technique based on the parametric bootstrap method, which relies on the idea to produce artificial measurements using the estimated probability distribution of the experimental data. In order to investigate the main…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-03-18 Paolo Pedroni , Stefano Sconfietti

In this paper an autoregressive time series model with conditional heteroscedasticity is considered, where both conditional mean and conditional variance function are modeled nonparametrically. A test for the model assumption of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-12 Marie Hušková , Natalie Neumeyer , Tobias Niebuhr , Leonie Selk

In this work, we employ autoregressive models developed in financial engineering for modeling of forest dynamics. Autoregressive models have some theoretical advantage over currently employed forest modeling approaches such as Markov chains…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-11-22 Olga Rumyantseva , Andrey Sarantsev , Nikolay Strigul

The bootstrap is a popular method of constructing confidence intervals due to its ease of use and broad applicability. Theoretical properties of bootstrap procedures have been established in a variety of settings. However, there is limited…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-19 Zhou Tang , Ted Westling

Random variables in metric spaces indexed by time and observed at equally spaced time points are receiving increased attention due to their broad applicability. The absence of inherent structure in metric spaces has resulted in a literature…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-24 Matthieu Bulté , Helle Sørensen

Nonparametric two-sample testing is a classical problem in inferential statistics. While modern two-sample tests, such as the edge count test and its variants, can handle multivariate and non-Euclidean data, contemporary gargantuan datasets…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-28 Trambak Banerjee , Bhaswar B. Bhattacharya , Gourab Mukherjee

In this paper I develop a wild bootstrap procedure for cluster-robust inference in linear quantile regression models. I show that the bootstrap leads to asymptotically valid inference on the entire quantile regression process in a setting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-15 Andreas Hagemann

When randomized ensemble methods such as bagging and random forests are implemented, a basic question arises: Is the ensemble large enough? In particular, the practitioner desires a rigorous guarantee that a given ensemble will perform…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-06 Miles E. Lopes , Suofei Wu , Thomas C. M. Lee

A bootstrap procedure for constructing prediction bands for a stationary functional time series is proposed. The procedure exploits a general vector autoregressive representation of the time-reversed series of Fourier coefficients appearing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-17 Efstathios Paparoditis , Han Lin Shang

Statistical multispecies models of multiarea marine ecosystems use a variety of data sources to estimate parameters using composite or weighted likelihood functions with associated weighting issues and questions on how to obtain variance…

Applications · Statistics 2012-02-16 Lorna Taylor , Verena M. Trenkel , Vojtech Kupca , Gunnar Stefansson

For more than $50$ years the {\it Mean Measure of Divergence} (MMD) has been one of the most prominent tools used in anthropology for the study of non-metric traits. However, one of the problems, in anthropology including palaeoanthropology…

Applications · Statistics 2019-08-22 Federico Zertuche , Abigail Meza-Peñaloza

This paper introduces the new data-dependent multiplier bootstrap for non-parametric analysis of survival data, possibly subject to competing risks. The new resampling procedure includes both the general wild bootstrap and the weird…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-08-25 Dennis Dobler , Jan Beyersmann , Markus Pauly

In unit root testing, a piecewise locally stationary process is adopted to accommodate nonstationary errors that can have both smooth and abrupt changes in second- or higher-order properties. Under this framework, the limiting null…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-02-16 Yeonwoo Rho , Xiaofeng Shao

This paper presents a new conformal method for generating simultaneous forecasting bands guaranteed to cover the entire path of a new random trajectory with sufficiently high probability. Prompted by the need for dependable uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-16 Yanfei Zhou , Lars Lindemann , Matteo Sesia

In this paper we present a technique for using the bootstrap to estimate the operating characteristics and their variability for certain types of ensemble methods. Bootstrapping a model can require a huge amount of work if the training data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-26 Anthony Gamst , Jay-Calvin Reyes , Alden Walker

Inference methods for computing confidence intervals in parametric settings usually rely on consistent estimators of the parameter of interest. However, it may be computationally and/or analytically burdensome to obtain such estimators in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-20 Samuel Orso , Mucyo Karemera , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser , Stéphane Guerrier

A nonparametric procedure to estimate the conditional probability that a nonstationary geostatistical process exceeds a certain threshold value is proposed. The method consists of a bootstrap algorithm that combines conditional simulation…