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Bayesian hypothesis tests leverage posterior probabilities, Bayes factors, or credible intervals to inform data-driven decision making. We propose a framework for power curve approximation with such hypothesis tests. We present a fast…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Luke Hagar , Nathaniel T. Stevens

Particle-based variational inference (VI) minimizes the KL divergence between model samples and the target posterior with gradient flow estimates. With the popularity of Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), the focus of particle-based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-19 Hanze Dong , Xi Wang , Yong Lin , Tong Zhang

We propose a fast and scalable variational method for Bayesian inference in high-dimensional parameter space, which we call projected Stein variational Newton (pSVN) method. We exploit the intrinsic low-dimensional geometric structure of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Peng Chen , Keyi Wu , Joshua Chen , Thomas O'Leary-Roseberry , Omar Ghattas

In this paper, we study efficient approximate sampling for probability distributions known up to normalization constants. We specifically focus on a problem class arising in Bayesian inference for large-scale inverse problems in science and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-14 Yifan Chen , Daniel Zhengyu Huang , Jiaoyang Huang , Sebastian Reich , Andrew M. Stuart

Variational inference offers scalable and flexible tools to tackle intractable Bayesian inference of modern statistical models like Bayesian neural networks and Gaussian processes. For largely over-parameterized models, however, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-03 Simone Rossi , Sebastien Marmin , Maurizio Filippone

We present a novel approach to approximate Gaussian and mixture-of-Gaussians filtering. Our method relies on a variational approximation via a gradient-flow representation. The gradient flow is derived from a Kullback--Leibler discrepancy…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-21 Adrien Corenflos , Hany Abdulsamad

The Wasserstein distance received a lot of attention recently in the community of machine learning, especially for its principled way of comparing distributions. It has found numerous applications in several hard problems, such as domain…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-23 Nicolas Courty , Rémi Flamary , Mélanie Ducoffe

This paper presents a groundbreaking approach to causal inference by integrating continuous normalizing flows (CNFs) with parametric submodels, enhancing their geometric sensitivity and improving upon traditional Targeted Maximum Likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Kaiwen Hou

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-29 Alexander Moreno , Tameem Adel , Edward Meeds , James M. Rehg , Max Welling

Almost all fields of science rely upon statistical inference to estimate unknown parameters in theoretical and computational models. While the performance of modern computer hardware continues to grow, the computational requirements for the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-25 David J. Warne , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson

Wasserstein Barycenter is a principled approach to represent the weighted mean of a given set of probability distributions, utilizing the geometry induced by optimal transport. In this work, we present a novel scalable algorithm to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-30 Jiaojiao Fan , Amirhossein Taghvaei , Yongxin Chen

Recent work used importance sampling ideas for better variational bounds on likelihoods. We clarify the applicability of these ideas to pure probabilistic inference, by showing the resulting Importance Weighted Variational Inference (IWVI)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-30 Justin Domke , Daniel Sheldon

We introduce Pawsterior, a variational flow-matching framework for improved and extended simulation-based inference (SBI). Many SBI problems involve posteriors constrained by structured domains, such as bounded physical parameters or hybrid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Jorge Carrasco-Pollo , Floor Eijkelboom , Jan-Willem van de Meent

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-02 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik

This paper re-examines the problem of parameter estimation in Bayesian networks with missing values and hidden variables from the perspective of recent work in on-line learning [Kivinen & Warmuth, 1994]. We provide a unified framework for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Eric Bauer , Daphne Koller , Yoram Singer

Inference networks of traditional Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are typically amortized, resulting in relatively inaccurate posterior approximation compared to instance-wise variational optimization. Recent semi-amortized approaches were…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-18 Minyoung Kim , Vladimir Pavlovic

Variational inference techniques based on inducing variables provide an elegant framework for scalable posterior estimation in Gaussian process (GP) models. Besides enabling scalability, one of their main advantages over sparse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-24 Simone Rossi , Markus Heinonen , Edwin V. Bonilla , Zheyang Shen , Maurizio Filippone

Deep Ensembles (DEs) demonstrate improved accuracy, calibration and robustness to perturbations over single neural networks partly due to their functional diversity. Particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods enhance diversity by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-06 Trung Trinh , Markus Heinonen , Luigi Acerbi , Samuel Kaski

We perform a mathematical and statistical analysis of the Wasserstein least squares problem, a regression method for vector-valued covariates and distribution-valued responses. Our proposal contrasts with other distributional regression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-29 Uriel Martínez León , Jonathan Niles-Weed

Stochastic variational inference offers an attractive option as a default method for differentiable probabilistic programming. However, the performance of the variational approach depends on the choice of an appropriate variational family.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-11 Luca Ambrogioni , Kate Lin , Emily Fertig , Sharad Vikram , Max Hinne , Dave Moore , Marcel van Gerven