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Related papers: Indirect inference through prediction

200 papers

The increasing popularity of regression discontinuity methods for causal inference in observational studies has led to a proliferation of different estimating strategies, most of which involve first fitting non-parametric regression models…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-11 Guido Imbens , Stefan Wager

Complex computer simulations are commonly required for accurate data modelling in many scientific disciplines, making statistical inference challenging due to the intractability of the likelihood evaluation for the observed data.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-02 Pablo de Castro , Tommaso Dorigo

Rapid advancements in data science require us to have fundamentally new frameworks to tackle prevalent but highly non-trivial "irregular" inference problems, to which the large sample central limit theorem does not apply. Typical examples…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-11 Minge Xie , Peng Wang

Given a set of observations generated by an optimization process, the goal of inverse optimization is to determine likely parameters of that process. We cast inverse optimization as a form of deep learning. Our method, called deep inverse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-04 Yingcong Tan , Andrew Delong , Daria Terekhov

We forecast the full conditional distribution of macroeconomic outcomes by systematically integrating three key principles: using high-dimensional data with appropriate regularization, adopting rigorous out-of-sample validation procedures,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-14 Ta-Chung Chi , Ting-Han Fan , Raffaele M. Ghigliazza , Domenico Giannone , Zixuan , Wang

Modern applications require methods that are computationally feasible on large datasets but also preserve statistical efficiency. Frequently, these two concerns are seen as contradictory: approximation methods that enable computation are…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-11 Darren Homrighausen , Daniel J. McDonald

Model selection aims to identify a sufficiently well performing model that is possibly simpler than the most complex model among a pool of candidates. However, the decision-making process itself can inadvertently introduce non-negligible…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-08 Yann McLatchie , Aki Vehtari

Traditional statistical estimation, or statistical inference in general, is static, in the sense that the estimate of the quantity of interest does not change the future evolution of the quantity. In some sequential estimation problems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-01 Aolin Xu

We consider basic conceptual questions concerning the relationship between statistical estimation and causal inference. Firstly, we show how to translate causal inference problems into an abstract statistical formalism without requiring any…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-22 Oliver J. Maclaren , Ruanui Nicholson

Symbolic regression is the machine learning method for learning functions from data. After a brief overview of the symbolic regression landscape, I will describe the two main challenges that traditional algorithms face: they have an unknown…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-07-18 Harry Desmond

Modern large-scale statistical models require to estimate thousands to millions of parameters. This is often accomplished by iterative algorithms such as gradient descent, projected gradient descent or their accelerated versions. What are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-04 Michael Celentano , Andrea Montanari , Yuchen Wu

We present an algorithm for a class of statistical inference problems. The main idea is to reformulate the inference problem as an optimization procedure, based on the generation of surrogate (auxiliary) functions. This approach is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-05-22 Rodrigo Carvajal , Rafael Orellana , Dimitrios Katselis , Pedro Escárate , Juan. C. Agüero

We investigate methods for penalized regression in the presence of missing observations. This paper introduces a method for estimating the parameters which compensates for the missing observations. We first, derive an unbiased estimator of…

Applications · Statistics 2013-10-09 Yunjin Choi , Robert Tibshirani

We present a general principle for estimating a regression function nonparametrically, allowing for a wide variety of data filtering, for example, repeated left truncation and right censoring. Both the mean and the median regression cases…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-10 Oliver Linton , Enno Mammen , Jens Perch Nielsen , Ingrid Van Keilegom

Probabilistic programming has emerged as a powerful paradigm in statistics, applied science, and machine learning: by decoupling modelling from inference, it promises to allow modellers to directly reason about the processes generating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-10 Maria I. Gorinova , Dave Moore , Matthew D. Hoffman

Recent years have seen a flurry of activities in designing provably efficient nonconvex procedures for solving statistical estimation problems. Due to the highly nonconvex nature of the empirical loss, state-of-the-art procedures often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Cong Ma , Kaizheng Wang , Yuejie Chi , Yuxin Chen

We consider the problem of diagnosis where a set of simple observations are used to infer a potentially complex hidden hypothesis. Finding the optimal subset of observations is intractable in general, thus we focus on the problem of active…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-07-12 Yewen Pu , Leslie P Kaelbling , Armando Solar-Lezama

This paper discusses predictive inference and feature selection for generalized linear models with scarce but high-dimensional data. We argue that in many cases one can benefit from a decision theoretically justified two-stage approach:…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Juho Piironen , Markus Paasiniemi , Aki Vehtari

We consider the problem of inference for parameters selected to report only after some algorithm, the canonical example being inference for model parameters after a model selection procedure. The conditional correction for selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-30 Jelena Markovic , Jonathan Taylor , Jeremy Taylor

Correlations between two variables of a high-dimensional system can be indicative of an underlying interaction, but can also result from indirect effects. Inverse Ising inference is a method to distinguish one from the other. Essentially,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-12-10 Benedikt Obermayer , Erel Levine