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Related papers: Limit theorems for sequential MCMC methods

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By facilitating the generation of samples from arbitrary probability distributions, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is, arguably, \emph{the} tool for the evaluation of Bayesian inference problems that yield non-standard posterior…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-27 Peter L Green , Robert E Moore , Ryan J Jackson , Jinglai Li , Simon Maskell

We investigate the properties of a sequential Monte Carlo method where the particle weight that appears in the algorithm is estimated by a positive, unbiased estimator. We present broadly-applicable convergence results, including a central…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-26 Paul B. Rohrbach , Robert L. Jack

We consider a class of high-dimensional spatial filtering problems, where the spatial locations of observations are unknown and driven by the partially observed hidden signal. This problem is exceptionally challenging as not only is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-07 Hamza Ruzayqat , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

Estimating failure probabilities of engineering systems is an important problem in many engineering fields. In this work we consider such problems where the failure probability is extremely small (e.g $\leq10^{-10}$). In this case, standard…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-05-24 Xinjuan Chen , Jinglai Li

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is an important and commonly used tool for the analysis of hierarchical models. Nevertheless, practitioners generally have two options for MCMC: utilize existing software that generates a black-box…

In this paper, we provide bounds on the asymptotic variance for a class of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers designed for approximating multimodal distributions. Such methods combine standard SMC methods and Markov chain Monte Carlo…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-25 Daniel Paulin , Ajay Jasra , Alexandre Thiery

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating expectations with respect to continuous un-normalized probability distributions. MCMC estimators typically have higher variance than…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-04 Dan Piponi , Matthew D. Hoffman , Pavel Sountsov

Option valuation problems are often solved using standard Monte Carlo (MC) methods. These techniques can often be enhanced using several strategies especially when one discretizes the dynamics of the underlying asset, of which we assume…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-06-06 P. P. Osei , A. Jasra

This paper presents a simulation-based framework for sequential inference from partially and discretely observed point process (PP's) models with static parameters. Taking on a Bayesian perspective for the static parameters, we build upon…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-01-24 James S. Martin , Ajay Jasra , Emma McCoy

In the following article we provide an exposition of exact computational methods to perform parameter inference from partially observed network models. In particular, we consider the duplication attachment (DA) model which has a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2013-06-20 Junshan Wang , Ajay Jasra , Maria De Iorio

Many real-world problems require one to estimate parameters of interest, in a Bayesian framework, from data that are collected sequentially in time. Conventional methods for sampling from posterior distributions, such as {Markov Chain Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-25 Jiangqi Wu , Linjie Wen , Peter L Green , Jinglai Li , Simon Maskell

Random samples of quantum states with specific properties are useful for various applications, such as Monte Carlo integration over the state space. In the high-dimensional situations that one encounters already for a few qubits, the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-02-02 Weijun Li , Rui Han , Jiangwei Shang , Hui Khoon Ng , Berthold-Georg Englert

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods are widely applied in Bayesian inference, system simulation and optimization problems. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a well-known class of MC methods which generate a Markov chain with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Luca Martino , Victor Elvira

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-11 Maxim Rabinovich , Elaine Angelino , Michael I. Jordan

We consider the generic problem of performing sequential Bayesian inference in a state-space model with observation process y, state process x and fixed parameter theta. An idealized approach would be to apply the iterated batch importance…

Computation · Statistics 2012-01-30 Nicolas Chopin , Pierre E. Jacob , Omiros Papaspiliopoulos

Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used for Bayesian inference and optimization in statistics, signal processing and machine learning. A well-known class of MC methods are Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In order to foster…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-27 L. Martino , V. Elvira , D. Luengo , J. Corander , F. Louzada

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are employed to sample from a given distribution of interest, whenever either the distribution does not exist in closed form, or, if it does, no efficient method to simulate an independent sample from…

Computation · Statistics 2008-07-22 Ioana A. Cosma , Masoud Asgharian

We introduce a new class of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, which we call free energy SMC. This class is inspired by free energy methods, which originate from Physics, and where one samples from a biased distribution such that a given…

Computation · Statistics 2010-06-16 Nicolas Chopin , Pierre Jacob

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are used to estimate features of interest of a distribution. The Monte Carlo error in estimation has an asymptotic normal distribution whose multivariate nature has so far been ignored in the MCMC…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-05 Dootika Vats , James M. Flegal , Galin L. Jones

This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-27 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yaxian Xu