Related papers: Stochastic model specification in Markov switching…
In this chapter we review stochastic modelling methods in climate science. First we provide a conceptual framework for stochastic modelling of deterministic dynamical systems based on the Mori-Zwanzig formalism. The Mori-Zwanzig equations…
In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…
Variable selection over a potentially large set of covariates in a linear model is quite popular. In the Bayesian context, common prior choices can lead to a posterior expectation of the regression coefficients that is a sparse (or nearly…
This paper expands traditional stochastic volatility models by allowing for time-varying skewness without imposing it. While dynamic asymmetry may capture the likely direction of future asset returns, it comes at the risk of leading to…
Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…
The R package stochvol provides a fully Bayesian implementation of heteroskedasticity modeling within the framework of stochastic volatility. It utilizes Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers to conduct inference by obtaining draws from…
We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…
Stochastic computational models in the form of pure jump processes occur frequently in the description of chemical reactive processes, of ion channel dynamics, and of the spread of infections in populations. For spatially extended models,…
Many existing shrinkage approaches for time-varying parameter (TVP) models assume constant innovation variances across time points, inducing sparsity by shrinking these variances toward zero. However, this assumption falls short when states…
In this paper, a general stochastic model with controls applied at the moments when the random process hits the boundary of a given subset of the state set is proposed and studied. The general concept of the model is formulated and its…
In the infectious disease literature, significant effort has been devoted to studying dynamics at a single scale. For example, compartmental models describing population-level dynamics are often formulated using differential equations. In…
Markovian population models are suitable abstractions to describe well-mixed interacting particle systems in situation where stochastic fluctuations are significant due to the involvement of low copy particles. In molecular biology,…
Stochastic processes find applications in modelling systems in a variety of disciplines. A large number of stochastic models considered are Markovian in nature. It is often observed that higher order Markov processes can model the data…
In recent years, many difficulties appeared when taking into account the inherent stochastic behavior of neurons and voltage-dependent ion channels in Hodgking-Huxley type models. In particular, an open problem for a stochastic model of…
There are multiple ways in which a stochastic system can be out of statistical equilibrium. It might be subject to time-varying forcing; or be in a transient phase on its way towards equilibrium; it might even be in equilibrium without us…
We present a scheme for sequential decision making with a risk-sensitive objective and constraints in a dynamic environment. A neural network is trained as an approximator of the mapping from parameter space to space of risk and policy with…
We propose a statistical-stochastic surrogate modeling approach to predict the response of the mean and variance statistics under various initial conditions and external forcing perturbations. The proposed modeling framework extends the…
We study a variance reduction strategy based on control variables for simulating the averaged macroscopic behavior of a stochastic slow-fast system. We assume that this averaged behavior can be written in terms of a few slow degrees of…
Mathematically modelling diffusive and advective transport of particles in heterogeneous layered media is important to many applications in computational, biological and medical physics. While deterministic continuum models of such…
This paper focuses on time-varying delayed stochastic differential systems with stochastically switching parameters formulated by a unified switching behavior combining a discrete adapted process and a Cox process. Unlike prior studies…