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It has historically been a challenge to perform Bayesian inference in a design-based survey context. The present paper develops a Bayesian model for sampling inference in the presence of inverse-probability weights. We use a hierarchical…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-24 Yajuan Si , Natesh S. Pillai , Andrew Gelman

A Bayesian network is a graphical model that encodes probabilistic relationships among variables of interest. When used in conjunction with statistical techniques, the graphical model has several advantages for data analysis. One, because…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-11 David Heckerman

There is significant growth and interest in the use of synthetic data as an enabler for machine learning in environments where the release of real data is restricted due to privacy or availability constraints. Despite a large number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Harrison Wilde , Jack Jewson , Sebastian Vollmer , Chris Holmes

Despite much research targeted at enabling conventional machine learning models to continually learn tasks and data distributions sequentially without forgetting the knowledge acquired, little effort has been devoted to account for more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Sandra Servia-Rodriguez , Cecilia Mascolo , Young D. Kwon

Machine Learning is becoming more prevalent in science and engineering, but many approaches do not provide meaningful uncertainty estimates and predictions may also violate known physical knowledge. We propose a Bayesian framework to embed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Matthew Marsh , Benoît Chachuat , Antonio del Rio Chanona

Much of human learning and inference can be framed within the computational problem of relational generalization. In this project, we propose a Bayesian model that generalizes relational knowledge to novel environments by analogically…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Ruairidh M. Battleday , Thomas L. Griffiths

Non-Bayesian social learning theory provides a framework that models distributed inference for a group of agents interacting over a social network. In this framework, each agent iteratively forms and communicates beliefs about an unknown…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-08-26 James Z. Hare , Cesar A. Uribe , Lance Kaplan , Ali Jadbabaie

Due to their great flexibility, nonparametric Bayes methods have proven to be a valuable tool for discovering complicated patterns in data. The term "nonparametric Bayes" suggests that these methods inherit model-free operating…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-04-15 Peter D. Hoff

A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-14 Mahdi Pakdaman Naeini , Gregory F. Cooper , Milos Hauskrecht

Non-Bayesian social learning enables multiple agents to conduct networked signal and information processing through observing environmental signals and information aggregating. Traditional non-Bayesian social learning models only consider…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Dongyan Sui , Weichen Cao , Stefan Vlaski , Chun Guan , Siyang Leng

Machine learning methods for computational imaging require uncertainty estimation to be reliable in real settings. While Bayesian models offer a computationally tractable way of recovering uncertainty, they need large data volumes to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-24 Francesco Tonolini , Jack Radford , Alex Turpin , Daniele Faccio , Roderick Murray-Smith

State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-11-04 Roger Frigola , Yutian Chen , Carl E. Rasmussen

Spurred on by recent successes in causal inference competitions, Bayesian nonparametric (and high-dimensional) methods have recently seen increased attention in the causal inference literature. In this paper, we present a comprehensive…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-11 Antonio R. Linero , Joseph L. Antonelli

This study presents a Bayesian learning perspective towards model predictive control algorithms. High-level frameworks have been developed separately in the earlier studies on Bayesian learning and sampling-based model predictive control.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-14 Namhoon Cho , Seokwon Lee , Hyo-Sang Shin , Antonios Tsourdos

This paper reviews recent developments in statistical structure learning; namely, Bayesian model reduction. Bayesian model reduction is a method for rapidly computing the evidence and parameters of probabilistic models that differ only in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-15 Karl Friston , Thomas Parr , Peter Zeidman

Modern Bayesian optimization and adaptive sampling methods increasingly rely on nonlinear parametric models, yet theoretical guarantees for such models under adaptive data collection remain limited. Existing analyses largely focus on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Rafael Oliveira

Comparing competing mathematical models of complex natural processes is a shared goal among many branches of science. The Bayesian probabilistic framework offers a principled way to perform model comparison and extract useful metrics for…

The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization instead of optimization, not the prior, or Bayes rule. Bayesian inference is especially compelling for deep neural networks. (1) Neural networks are typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-30 Andrew Gordon Wilson

A key problem in statistical modeling is model selection, how to choose a model at an appropriate level of complexity. This problem appears in many settings, most prominently in choosing the number ofclusters in mixture models or the number…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-08-05 Samuel J. Gershman , David M. Blei

There is increasing interest in the problem of nonparametric regression with high-dimensional predictors. When the number of predictors $D$ is large, one encounters a daunting problem in attempting to estimate a $D$-dimensional surface…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-17 Yun Yang , David B. Dunson