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There is evidence that the numbers in probabilistic inference don't really matter. This paper considers the idea that we can make a probabilistic model simpler by making fewer distinctions. Unfortunately, the level of a Bayesian network…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-01 David L. Poole

In this paper, we establish some general forms of the law of the iterated logarithm for independent random variables in a sub-linear expectation space, where the random variables are not necessarily identically distributed. Exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-16 Li-Xin Zhang

Frequentist (classical) and the Bayesian approaches to the construction of confidence limits are compared. Various examples which illustrate specific problems are presented. The Likelihood Principle and the Stopping Rule Paradox are…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 G. Zech

The purpose of this article is to develop a general parametric estimation theory that allows the derivation of the limit distribution of estimators in non-regular models where the true parameter value may lie on the boundary of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-28 Junichiro Yoshida , Nakahiro Yoshida

We construct a time-consistent sublinear expectation in the setting of volatility uncertainty. This mapping extends Peng's G-expectation by allowing the range of the volatility uncertainty to be stochastic. Our construction is purely…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-06 Marcel Nutz

We investigate the number of integer solutions to a multiplicative Diophantine approximation problem and show that the associated counting function converges in distribution to a normal law. Our approach relies on the analysis of…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Michael Björklund , Reynold Fregoli , Alexander Gorodnik

Estimation mainly for two classes of popular models, single-index and partially linear single-index models, is studied in this paper. Such models feature nonstationarity. Orthogonal series expansion is used to approximate the unknown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-25 Chaohua Dong , Jiti Gao , Dag Tjøstheim

In this paper, we derive asymptotic results for L^1-Wasserstein distance between the distribution function and the corresponding empirical distribution function of a stationary sequence. Next, we give some applications to dynamical systems…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-16 Sophie Dede

We establish self-norming central limit theorems for non-stationary time series arising as observations on sequential maps possessing an indifferent fixed point. These transformations are obtained by perturbing the slope in the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-09-28 Matthew Nicol , Andrew Török , Sandro Vaienti

The first aim of this paper is to wonder to what extent we can generalize the central limit theorem of Gordin [5] under the so-called L 1-projective criteria to ergodic stationary random fields when completely commuting filtrations are…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-19 Han-Mai Lin , Florence Merlevède , Dalibor Voln{ý}

We provide a general result for bounding the difference between point probabilities of integer supported distributions and the translated Poisson distribution, a convenient alternative to the discretized normal. We illustrate our theorem in…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-05 A. D. Barbour , Adrian Röllin , Nathan Ross

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are deep generative models that support exact and efficient probabilistic inference. Yet in autoregressive language modeling, PCs still lag behind Transformer-based large language models (LLMs), suggesting an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Zhiyu Zhao , Xuejie Liu , Muhan Zhang , Anji Liu

We study the probability distribution of the area and the number of vertices of random polygons in a convex set $K\subset\mathbb{R}^2$. The novel aspect of our approach is that it yields uniform estimates for all convex sets…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-13 John Pardon

We refine the classical Lindeberg-Feller central limit theorem by obtaining asymptotic bounds on the Kolmogorov distance, the Wasserstein distance, and the parametrized Prokhorov distances in terms of a Lindeberg index. We thus obtain more…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-26 Ben Berckmoes , Geert Molenberghs

Non-linear state estimation and some related topics, like parametric estimation, fault diagnosis, and perturbation attenuation, are tackled here via a new methodology in numerical differentiation. The corresponding basic system theoretic…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2008-11-06 Michel Fliess , Cédric Join , Hebertt Sira-Ramirez

We give optimal convergence rates in the central limit theorem for a large class of martingale difference sequences with bounded third moments. The rates depend on the behaviour of the conditional variances and for stationary sequences the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Mohamed El Machkouri , Lahcen Ouchti

In this paper, we investigate annealed and quenched limit theorems for random expanding dynamical systems. Making use of functional analytic techniques and more probabilistic arguments with martingales, we prove annealed versions of a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2014-07-18 Romain Aimino , Matthew Nicol , Sandro Vaienti

Our title challenges the reader to venture beyond linear algebra in designing models and in thinking about numerical algorithms for identifying solutions. This article accompanies the author's lecture at the International Congress of…

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2021-08-24 Bernd Sturmfels

We study a high-dimensional generalized linear model and penalized empirical risk minimization with $\ell_1$ penalty. Our aim is to provide a non-trivial illustration that non-asymptotic bounds for the estimator can be obtained without…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-09-12 Sara A. van de Geer

We estimate linear functionals in the classical deconvolution problem by kernel estimators. We obtain a uniform central limit theorem with $\sqrt{n}$-rate on the assumption that the smoothness of the functionals is larger than the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-12 Jakob Söhl , Mathias Trabs
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