Related papers: Tight Prediction Intervals Using Expanded Interval…

Uncertainty quantification of prediction models through prediction sets is increasingly popular and successful, but most existing methods rely on directly observing the outcome and do not appropriately handle censored outcomes, such as…

Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) is a standard technique in machine learning, where a model is selected by minimizing a loss function over constraint set. When the training dataset consists of private information, it is natural to use a…

While the expected calibration error (ECE), which employs binning, is widely adopted to evaluate the calibration performance of machine learning models, theoretical understanding of its estimation bias is limited. In this paper, we present…

Effective decision making requires understanding the uncertainty inherent in a prediction. In regression, this uncertainty can be estimated by a variety of methods; however, many of these methods are laborious to tune, generate…

In real-world regression tasks, datasets frequently exhibit imbalanced distributions, characterized by a scarcity of data in high-complexity regions and an abundance in low-complexity areas. This imbalance presents significant challenges…

Evidential-EM (E2M) algorithm is an effective approach for computing maximum likelihood estimations under finite mixture models, especially when there is uncertain information about data. In this paper we present an extension of the E2M…

In applications of linear mixed-effects models, experimenters often desire uncertainty quantification for random quantities, like predicted treatment effects for unobserved individuals or groups. For example, consider an agricultural…

Edge-exchangeable probabilistic network models generate edges as an i.i.d.~sequence from a discrete measure, providing a simple means for statistical inference of latent network properties. The measure is often constructed using the…

Prediction intervals are commonly used in meta-analysis with random-effects models. One widely used method, the Higgins-Thompson-Spiegelhalter prediction interval, replaces the heterogeneity parameter with its point estimate, but its…

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free predictive intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage. However, achieving conditional validity and interval efficiency (in terms of short interval length) remains challenging, particularly…

Many modern computational approaches to classical problems in quantitative finance are formulated as empirical loss minimization (ERM), allowing direct applications of classical results from statistical machine learning. These methods,…

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model…

We address the problem of prediction for extreme observations by proposing an extremal linear prediction method. We construct an inner product space of nonnegative random variables derived from transformed-linear combinations of independent…

We propose a network architecture capable of reliably estimating uncertainty of regression based predictions without sacrificing accuracy. The current state-of-the-art uncertainty algorithms either fall short of achieving prediction…

We consider the problem of predicting as well as the best linear combination of d given functions in least squares regression under L^\infty constraints on the linear combination. When the input distribution is known, there already exists…

Machine learning methods have been shown to be effective for weather forecasting, based on the speed and accuracy compared to traditional numerical models. While early efforts primarily concentrated on deterministic predictions, the field…

Bond rating Transition Probability Matrices (TPMs) are built over a one-year time-frame and for many practical purposes, like the assessment of risk in portfolios or the computation of banking Capital Requirements (e.g. the new IFRS 9…

Recurrent neural networks and sequence to sequence models require a predetermined length for prediction output length. Our model addresses this by allowing the network to predict a variable length output in inference. A new loss function…

The problem of machine learning with missing values is common in many areas. A simple approach is to first construct a dataset without missing values simply by discarding instances with missing entries or by imputing a fixed value for each…

We present a novel and easy-to-use method for calibrating error-rate based confidence intervals to evidence-based support intervals. Support intervals are obtained from inverting Bayes factors based on a parameter estimate and its standard…