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In many domains, we are interested in analyzing the structure of the underlying distribution, e.g., whether one variable is a direct parent of the other. Bayesian model-selection attempts to find the MAP model and use its structure to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Nir Friedman , Daphne Koller

Boson sampling is a promising candidate for quantum supremacy. It requires to sample from a complicated distribution, and is trusted to be intractable on classical computers. Among the various classical sampling methods, the Markov chain…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods asymptotically sample from complex probability distributions. The pseudo-marginal MCMC framework only requires an unbiased estimator of the unnormalized probability distribution function to construct…

Computation · Statistics 2016-05-25 Iain Murray , Matthew M. Graham

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-24 Minas Karamanis , Uroš Seljak

Variable selection is a key issue when analyzing high-dimensional data. The explosion of data with large sample sizes and dimensionality brings new challenges to this problem in both inference accuracy and computational complexity. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-30 Xu Chen , Shaan Qamar , Surya T. Tokdar

A new class of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, based on simulating piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs), have recently shown great promise: they are non-reversible, can mix better than standard MCMC algorithms, and…

Computation · Statistics 2020-10-23 Augustin Chevallier , Paul Fearnhead , Matthew Sutton

A number of coupling strategies are presented for stochastically modeled biochemical processes with time-dependent parameters. In particular, the stacked coupling is introduced and is shown via a number of examples to provide an…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-04-04 David F. Anderson , Chaojie Yuan

I show how to run an N-time-step Markov chain simulation in a circular fashion, so that the state at time 0 follows the state at time N-1 in the same way as states at times t follow those at times t-1 for 0<t<N. This wrap-around of the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-11-15 Radford M. Neal

Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-27 Edwin Fong , Simon Lyddon , Chris Holmes

Evaluating the degree of partisan districting (Gerrymandering) in a statistical framework typically requires an ensemble of districting plans which are drawn from a prescribed probability distribution that adheres to a realistic and…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-19 Gregory Herschlag , Jonathan C. Mattingly , Matthias Sachs , Evan Wyse

We consider chance constrained optimization where it is sought to optimize a function while complying with constraints, both of which are affected by uncertainties. The high computational cost of realistic simulations strongly limits the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-04-18 Julien Pelamatti , Rodolphe Le Riche , Céline Helbert , Christophette Blanchet-Scalliet

We propose a new framework for efficiently sampling from complex probability distributions using a combination of normalizing flows and elliptical slice sampling (Murray et al., 2010). The central idea is to learn a diffeomorphism, through…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-28 Alberto Cabezas , Christopher Nemeth

We study the convergence of an $N$-particle Markovian controlled system to the solution of a family of stochastic McKean-Vlasov control problems, either with a finite horizon or Schr\"odinger type cost functional. Specifically, under…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-22 Francesco C. De Vecchi , Chiara Rigoni

As it has become common to use many computer cores in routine applications, finding good ways to parallelize popular algorithms has become increasingly important. In this paper, we present a parallelization scheme for Markov chain Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-01 Guillaume W. Basse , Natesh S. Pillai , Aaron Smith

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are essential tools in computational statistics for sampling from unnormalised probability distributions, but can be fragile when targeting high-dimensional, multimodal, or complex target…

Recently there have been exciting developments in Monte Carlo methods, with the development of new MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which are based on continuous-time, rather than discrete-time, Markov processes. This has…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-29 Paul Fearnhead , Joris Bierkens , Murray Pollock , Gareth O Roberts

We study the existence of densities for distributions of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. We also obtain relationships between invariant densities of the continuous time process and that of the process observed at jump times. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-03 Piotr Gwiżdż , Marta Tyran-Kamińska

We formulate both Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithms and basic statistical physics in terms of elementary symmetries. This perspective on sampling yields derivations of well-known MCMC algorithms and a new parallel…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-06-30 Steve Huntsman

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-03 Nicholas W. Barendregt , Emily G. Webb , Zachary P. Kilpatrick

A probabilistic approach for estimating sample qualities for stochastic differential equations is introduced in this paper. The aim is to provide a quantitative upper bound of the distance between the invariant probability measure of a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-12-24 Matthew Dobson , Jiayu Zhai , Yao Li
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