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In this paper, we propose a novel and generic family of multiple importance sampling estimators. We first revisit the celebrated balance heuristic estimator, a widely used Monte Carlo technique for the approximation of intractable…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-09 Mateu Sbert , Víctor Elvira

Inference for Dirichlet process hierarchical models is typically performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, which can be roughly categorised into marginal and conditional methods. The former integrate out analytically the…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-10-24 Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Gareth Roberts

Monte Carlo methods are essential tools for Bayesian inference. Gibbs sampling is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, extensively used in signal processing, machine learning, and statistics, employed to draw samples from…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-21 Luca Martino , Victor Elvira , Gustau Camps-Valls

We develop generic and efficient importance sampling estimators for Monte Carlo evaluation of prices of single- and multi-asset European and path-dependent options in asset price models driven by L\'evy processes, extending earlier works…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-08-17 Adrien Genin , Peter Tankov

Recent progress in deep latent variable models has largely been driven by the development of flexible and scalable variational inference methods. Variational training of this type involves maximizing a lower bound on the log-likelihood,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-06-02 Andriy Mnih , Danilo J. Rezende

We construct importance sampling schemes for stochastic differential equations with small noise and fast oscillating coefficients. Standard Monte Carlo methods perform poorly for these problems in the small noise limit. With multiscale…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-03 Paul Dupuis , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos , Hui Wang

Among Monte Carlo techniques, the importance sampling requires fine tuning of a proposal distribution, which is now fluently resolved through iterative schemes. The Adaptive Multiple Importance Sampling (AMIS) of Cornuet et al. (2012)…

Computation · Statistics 2014-05-27 Jean-Michel Marin , Pierre Pudlo , Mohammed Sedki

Continuous level Monte Carlo is an unbiased, continuous version of the celebrated multilevel Monte Carlo method. The approximation level is assumed to be continuous resulting in a stochastic process describing the quantity of interest.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-19 Cedric Aaron Beschle , Andrea Barth

We consider the efficient use of an approximation within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), with subsequent importance sampling (IS) correction of the Markov chain inexact output, leading to asymptotically exact inference. We detail…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-15 Jordan Franks

For complex latent variable models, the likelihood function is not available in closed form. In this context, a popular method to perform parameter estimation is Importance Weighted Variational Inference. It essentially maximizes the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-16 Badr-Eddine Cherief-Abdellatif , Randal Douc , Arnaud Doucet , Hugo Marival

Importance sampling is often used in machine learning when training and testing data come from different distributions. In this paper we propose a new variant of importance sampling that can reduce the variance of importance sampling-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-11 Philip S. Thomas , Emma Brunskill

Increased access to computing resources has led to the development of algorithms that can run efficiently on multi-core processing units or in distributed computing environments. In the context of Bayesian inference, many parallel computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-11 Daniel Würzler Barreto , Mevin B. Hooten

We introduce overdispersed black-box variational inference, a method to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator of the gradient in black-box variational inference. Instead of taking samples from the variational distribution, we use…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-04 Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Michalis K. Titsias , David M. Blei

The naive importance sampling estimator, based on samples from a single importance density, can be numerically unstable. Instead, we consider generalized importance sampling estimators where samples from more than one probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-12 Vivekananda Roy , Aixin Tan , James M. Flegal

We present a generic path-dependent importance sampling algorithm where the Girsanov induced change of probability on the path space is represented by a sequence of neural networks taking the past of the trajectory as an input. At each…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-08 Benjamin Virrion

We consider systems of slow--fast diffusions with small noise in the slow component. We construct provably logarithmic asymptotically optimal importance schemes for the estimation of rare events based on the moderate deviations principle.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Matthew R. Morse , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

This paper addresses the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions. In particular, we have considered a recently proposed technique known as population Monte Carlo (PMC), which is based on an iterative…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-03 Eugenia Koblents , Joaquín Míguez

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-18 Giacomo Zanella , Gareth Roberts

When the target parameter for inference is a real-valued, continuous function of probabilities in the $k$-sample multinomial problem, variance estimation may be challenging. In small samples or when the function is nondifferentiable at the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-05-13 Michael C Sachs , Erin E Gabriel , Michael P Fay

We investigate a stochastic version of the synthetic multicellular clock model proposed by Garcia-Ojalvo, Elowitz and Strogatz. By introducing dynamical noise in the model and assuming that the partial observations of the system can be…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-15 Inés P. Mariño , Joaquin Miguez , Alexey Zaikin