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Model selection is a pivotal process in the quantitative sciences, where researchers must navigate between numerous candidate models of varying complexity. Traditional information criteria, such as the corrected Akaike Information Criterion…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-12-16 Jakob Vanhoefer , Antonia Körner , Domagoj Doresic , Jan Hasenauer , Dilan Pathirana

Effective model selection is critical in symbolic regression (SR) to identify mathematical expressions that balance accuracy and complexity, and have low expected error on unseen data. Many modern implementations of genetic programming (GP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Ali Soltani , Gabriel Kronberger , Fabricio Olivetti de Franca , Mattia Billa , Alessandro Lucantonio

This paper examines the limit properties of information criteria (such as AIC, BIC, HQIC) for distinguishing between the unit root model and the various kinds of explosive models. The explosive models include the local-to-unit-root model,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-22 Yubo Tao , Jun Yu

Information criteria such as Akaike's (AIC) and Bayes' (BIC) are widely used for model selection in physics and beyond, quantifying the tradeoff between model complexity and goodness-of-fit to enforce parsimony. However, their derivation…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-11-20 Kumar Utkarsh , Daniel M. Abrams

Model selection is the problem of distinguishing competing models, perhaps featuring different numbers of parameters. The statistics literature contains two distinct sets of tools, those based on information theory such as the Akaike…

Astrophysics · Physics 2014-10-13 Andrew R Liddle

Bayesian model averaging is a practical method for dealing with uncertainty due to model specification. Use of this technique requires the estimation of model probability weights. In this work, we revisit the derivation of estimators for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-05 Ethan T. Neil , Jacob W. Sitison

Linear mixed effects models are highly flexible in handling a broad range of data types and are therefore widely used in applications. A key part in the analysis of data is model selection, which often aims to choose a parsimonious model…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-06-12 Samuel Müller , J. L. Scealy , A. H. Welsh

The learning coefficient plays a crucial role in analyzing the performance of information criteria, such as the Widely Applicable Information Criterion (WAIC) and the Widely Applicable Bayesian Information Criterion (WBIC), which Sumio…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-17 Tatsuyoshi Takio , Joe Suzuki

Unmeasured covariates constitute one of the important problems in causal inference. Even if there are some unmeasured covariates, some instrumental variable methods such as a two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) estimator, or a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-30 Shunichiro Orihara

An important issue in many multivariate regression problems is to eliminate candidate predictors with null predictor vectors. In large-dimensional (LD) setting where the numbers of responses and predictors are large, model selection…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-26 Zhidong Bai , Kwok Pui Choi , Yasunori Fujikoshi , Jiang Hu

The Bayesian and Akaike information criteria aim at finding a good balance between under- and over-fitting. They are extensively used every day by practitioners. Yet we contend they suffer from at least two afflictions: their penalty…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-20 Sylvain Sardy , Maxime van Cutsem , Sara van de Geer

Akaike's information criterion (AIC) is a measure of the quality of a statistical model for a given set of data. We can determine the best statistical model for a particular data set by the minimization of the AIC. Since we need to evaluate…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-11-21 Keiji Kimura , Hayato Waki

We develop an algorithm for model selection which allows for the consideration of a combinatorially large number of candidate models governing a dynamical system. The innovation circumvents a disadvantage of standard model selection which…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-11-01 Niall M. Mangan , J. Nathan Kutz , Steven L. Brunton , Joshua L. Proctor

Longitudinal data are common in clinical trials and observational studies, where missing outcomes due to dropouts are always encountered. Under such context with the assumption of missing at random, the weighted generalized estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-30 Chixiang Chen , Biyi Shen , Lijun Zhang , Yuan Xue , Ming Wang

The use of Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in the model selection procedure is under the assumption that the observations are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). However, in practice, we do not always have i.i.d. samples.…

Applications · Statistics 2021-05-03 Nan Shen , Bárbara González

We introduce a novel Information Criterion (IC), termed Learning under Singularity (LS), designed to enhance the functionality of the Widely Applicable Bayes Information Criterion (WBIC) and the Singular Bayesian Information Criterion…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-23 Lirui Liu , Joe Suzuki

We present a weighted version of Leave-One-Out (LOO) cross-validation for estimating the Integrated Squared Error (ISE) when approximating an unknown function by a predictor that depends linearly on evaluations of the function over a finite…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-27 Luc Pronzato , Maria-João Rendas

In the field of spatial data analysis, spatially varying coefficients (SVC) models, which allow regression coefficients to vary by region and flexibly capture spatial heterogeneity, have continued to be developed in various directions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-14 Yuko Kakikawa , Yoshiyuki Ninomiya

A statistical model or a learning machine is called regular if the map taking a parameter to a probability distribution is one-to-one and if its Fisher information matrix is always positive definite. If otherwise, it is called singular. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-09-03 Sumio Watanabe

In the information-based paradigm of inference, model selection is performed by selecting the candidate model with the best estimated predictive performance. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the estimate of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-11 Colin H. LaMont , Paul A. Wiggins