Related papers: Approximate Bayesian inference for mixture cure mo…

Early detection of patients vulnerable to infections acquired in the hospital environment is a challenge in current health systems given the impact that such infections have on patient mortality and healthcare costs. This work is focused on…

Approximate Bayesian computation allows for inference of complicated probabilistic models with intractable likelihoods using model simulations. The Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation of approximate Bayesian computation is often…

This paper focuses on variational inference with intractable likelihood functions that can be unbiasedly estimated. A flexible variational approximation based on Gaussian mixtures is developed, by adopting the mixture population Monte Carlo…

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) with partial likelihoods involving a latent structure often entail an intractable marginalization, thus making inference hard. We propose a novel approach to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) involving…

Survival analysis predicts the time until an event of interest, such as failure or death, but faces challenges due to censored data, where some events remain unobserved. Ensemble-based models, like random survival forests and gradient…

We consider nonparametric estimation of cure-rate based on mixture model under Case-1 interval censoring. We show that the nonparametric maximum-likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of cure-rate is non-unique as well as inconsistent, and propose…

Mixture models are probabilistic models aimed at uncovering and representing latent subgroups within a population. In the realm of network data analysis, the latent subgroups of nodes are typically identified by their connectivity…

We estimate a general mixture of Markov jump processes. The key novel feature of the proposed mixture is that the transition intensity matrices of the Markov processes comprising the mixture are entirely unconstrained. The Markov processes…

We describe a limitation in the expressiveness of the predictive uncertainty estimate given by mean-field variational inference (MFVI), a popular approximate inference method for Bayesian neural networks. In particular, MFVI fails to give…

Scientific researchers utilize randomized experiments to draw casual statements. Most early studies as well as current work on experiments with sequential intervention decisions has been focusing on estimating the causal effects among…

Estimating the number of the number of people from hidden and/or marginalised populations - such as people dependent on opioids or cocaine - is important to guide policy decisions and provision of harm reduction services. Methods such as…

We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…

When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…

We propose a Bayesian approach for model-based clustering of multivariate categorical data where variables are allowed to be associated within clusters and the number of clusters is unknown. The approach uses a two-layer mixture of finite…

Exponential random graph models are extremely difficult models to handle from a statistical viewpoint, since their normalising constant, which depends on model parameters, is available only in very trivial cases. We show how inference can…

Causal inference (CI) in observational studies has received a lot of attention in healthcare, education, ad attribution, policy evaluation, etc. Confounding is a typical hazard, where the context affects both, the treatment assignment and…

Bayesian inference is a popular approach to calibrating uncertainties, but it can underpredict such uncertainties when model misspecification is present, impacting its reliability to inform decision making. Recently, the statistics and…

Microsimulation models (MSMs) are used to predict population-level effects of health care policies by simulating individual-level outcomes. Simulated outcomes are governed by unknown parameters that are chosen so that the model accurately…

This paper offers a qualitative insight into the convergence of Bayesian parameter inference in a setup which mimics the modeling of the spread of a disease with associated disease measurements. Specifically, we are interested in the…

This study presents a semi-nonparametric Latent Class Choice Model (LCCM) with a flexible class membership component. The proposed model formulates the latent classes using mixture models as an alternative approach to the traditional random…