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Forecasts of multivariate probability distributions are required for a variety of applications. Scoring rules enable the evaluation of forecast accuracy, and comparison between forecasting methods. We propose a theoretical framework for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-30 Xiaochun Meng , James W. Taylor , Souhaib Ben Taieb , Siran Li

We build a sharp approximation of the whole distribution of the sum of iid heavy-tailed random vectors, combining mean and extreme behaviors. It extends the so-called 'normex' approach from a univariate to a multivariate framework. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-16 Marie Kratz , Evgeny Prokopenko

Exponential distributions appear in a wide range of applications including chemistry, nuclear physics, time series analyses, and stock market trends. There are conceivable circumstances in which one would be interested in the cumulative…

History and Overview · Mathematics 2018-03-23 Cecilia Chirenti , M. Coleman Miller

We develop a general variational inference method that preserves dependency among the latent variables. Our method uses copulas to augment the families of distributions used in mean-field and structured approximations. Copulas model the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-03 Dustin Tran , David M. Blei , Edoardo M. Airoldi

Polynomial distribution can be applied to dynamical systems in certain situations. Macroeconomic systems characterized by economic variables such as income and wealth can be modelled similarly using polynomials. We extend our previous work…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-03-29 Elvis Oltean

This work provides a survey of the general class of distributions generated from the mixture of the beta random variables. We provide an extensive review of the literature, concerning generating new distributions via the inverse CDF…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-12 Palash Sharma

Several formulations have long existed in the literature in the form of continuous mixtures of normal variables where a mixing variable operates on the mean or on the variance or on both the mean and the variance of a multivariate normal…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-31 Reinaldo B. Arellano-Valle , Adelchi Azzalini

Several distributions are studied, simultaneously in the real, complex, quaternion and octonion cases. Specifically, these are the central, nonsingular matricvariate and matrix multivariate T and beta type II distributions and the joint…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-24 Jose A. Diaz-Garcia , Ramon Gutierrez-Jaimez

Matrix variate beta (MVB) distributions are used in different fields of hypothesis testing, multivariate correlation analysis, zero regression, canonical correlation analysis and etc. In this approach a unified methodology is proposed to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-05 A. Bekker , M. Arashi

Risk assessment for rare events is essential for understanding systemic stability in complex systems. As rare events are typically highly correlated, it is important to study heavy-tailed multivariate distributions of the relevant…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-02 Efstratios Manolakis , Anton J. Heckens , Benjamin Köhler , Thomas Guhr

Matrix-variate distributions can intuitively model the dependence structure of matrix-valued observations that arise in applications with multivariate time series, spatio-temporal or repeated measures. This paper develops an…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-24 Geoffrey Z. Thompson , Ranjan Maitra , William Q. Meeker , Ashraf Bastawros

Single index financial market models cannot account for the empirically observed complex interactions between shares in a market. We describe a multi-share financial market model and compare characteristics of the volatility, that is the…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-31 Adam Ponzi

We study the convergence of distributions on finite paths of weighted digraphs, namely the family of Boltzmann distributions and the sequence of uniform distributions. Targeting applications to the convergence of distributions on paths, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-04 Samy Abbes

In this note, we define a Gaussian probability distribution over matrices. We prove some useful properties of this distribution, namely, the fact that marginalization, conditioning, and affine transformations preserve the matrix Gaussian…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-22 Shane Barratt

Application of the exact statistical inference frequently leads to a non-standard probability distributions of the considered estimators or test statistics. The exact distributions of many estimators and test statistics can be specified by…

Computation · Statistics 2018-01-09 Viktor Witkovský

Varying coefficient models are useful in applications where the effect of the covariate might depend on some other covariate such as time or location. Various applications of these models often give rise to case-specific prior distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-05 Maria Franco-Villoria , Massimo Ventrucci , Håvard Rue

This short note is a supplement to [1], in which the total variation of graph distributional signals is introduced and studied. We introduce a different formulation of total variation and relate it to the notion of edge centrality. The…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-11-04 Feng Ji

The traditional class of elliptical distributions is extended to allow for asymmetries. A completely robust dispersion matrix estimator (the `spectral estimator') for the new class of `generalized elliptical distributions' is presented. It…

Physics and Society · Physics 2007-05-23 Gabriel Frahm , Uwe Jaekel

We extend the construction principle of multivariate phase-type distributions to establish an analytically tractable class of heavy-tailed multivariate random variables whose marginal distributions are of Mittag-Leffler type with arbitrary…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-25 Hansjoerg Albrecher , Martin Bladt , Mogens Bladt

Hidden regular variation defines a subfamily of distributions satisfying multivariate regular variation on $\mathbb{E} = [0, \infty]^d \backslash \{(0,0, ..., 0) \} $ and models another regular variation on the sub-cone $\mathbb{E}^{(2)} =…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-09-07 Abhimanyu Mitra , Sidney I. Resnick