Related papers: Forecasting Internally Displaced Population Migrat…
Predicting forced displacement is an important undertaking of many humanitarian aid agencies, which must anticipate flows in advance in order to provide vulnerable refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) with shelter, food, and…
Monitoring tools for anticipatory action are increasingly gaining traction to improve the efficiency and timeliness of humanitarian responses. Whilst predictive models can now forecast conflicts with high accuracy, translating these…
Extreme weather events are projected to intensify global migration, increase resource competition, and amplify socio-spatial phenomena, including intergroup conflicts, socioeconomic inequalities, and unplanned displacements, among others.…
The effects of the so-called "refugee crisis" of 2015-16 continue to dominate the political agenda in Europe. Migration flows were sudden and unexpected, leaving governments unprepared and exposing significant shortcomings in the field of…
While traditional data systems remain fundamental to humanitarian response, they often lack the real-time responsiveness and spatial precision needed to capture increasingly complex patterns of displacement. Internal displacement reached an…
Human migration is a type of human mobility, where a trip involves a person moving with the intention of changing their home location. Predicting human migration as accurately as possible is important in city planning applications,…
Estimates of future migration patterns are of broad interest in demography. Forced migration, including refugee and asylum seekers, plays an important role in overall migration patterns, but is notoriously difficult to forecast. Focusing on…
This extended abstract describes an ongoing project that attempts to blend publicly available organic, real time behavioral data, event data, and traditional migration data to determine when and where people will move during times of…
In many developing nations, a lack of poverty data prevents critical humanitarian organizations from responding to large-scale crises. Currently, socioeconomic surveys are the only method implemented on a large scale for organizations and…
In this paper, we have discussed initial findings and results of our experiment to predict sexual and reproductive health vulnerabilities of migrants in a data-constrained environment. Notwithstanding the limited research and data about…
Nearly 110 million people are forcibly displaced people worldwide. However, estimating the scale and patterns of internally displaced persons in real time, and developing appropriate policy responses, remain hindered by traditional data…
Humanitarian agencies must be prepared to mobilize quickly in response to complex emergencies, and their effectiveness depends on their ability to identify, anticipate, and prepare for future needs. These are typically highly uncertain…
In many developing countries, half the population lives in rural locations, where access to essentials such as school materials, mosquito nets, and medical supplies is restricted. We propose an alternative method of distribution (to…
The Syrian civil war has been ongoing since 2011 and has already caused thousands of deaths. The analysis of death tolls helps to understand the dynamics of the conflict and to better allocate resources to the affected areas. In this…
Since 2014, nearly 2 million Venezuelans have fled to Colombia to escape an economically devastated country during what is one of the largest humanitarian crises in modern history. Non-government organizations and local government units are…
The conflict in Ukraine is causing large-scale displacement in Europe and in the World. Based on the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates, more than 7 million people fled the country as of 5 September 2022. In…
Globally increasing migration pressures call for new modelling approaches in order to design effective policies. It is important to have not only efficient models to predict migration flows but also to understand how specific parameters…
High-resolution human settlement maps provide detailed delineations of where people live and are vital for scientific and practical purposes, such as rapid disaster response, allocation of humanitarian resources, and international…
Whether in search of better trade opportunities or escaping wars, humans have always been on the move. For almost a century, mathematical models of human mobility have been instrumental in the quantification of commuting patterns and…
This paper presents a quantitative framework for forecasting immigrant integration using immigrant density as the single driver. By comparing forecasted integration estimates based on data collected up to specific periods in time, with…