Related papers: On generalized ARCH model with stationary liquidit…
We consider a generalized alpha-type model in the whole three-dimensional space and driven by a stationary (time-independent) external force. This model contains as particular cases some relevant equations of the fluid dynamics, among them…
We shall consider some common models in linear thermo-elasticity within a common structural framework. Due to the flexibility of the structural perspective we will obtain well-posedness results for a large class of generalized models…
This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…
A generalization of the Aubry-Andr\'e-Harper (AAH) model is developed, containing a tunable phase shift between on-site and off-diagonal modulations. A localization transition can be induced by varying just this phase, keeping all other…
In this paper we propose a recursive online algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-varying ARCH process. The estimation is done by updating the estimator at time point $t-1$ with observations about the time point $t$ to yield an…
This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of financial time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient…
The ARCH process (R. F. Engle, 1982) constitutes a paradigmatic generator of stochastic time series with time-dependent variance like it appears on a wide broad of systems besides economics in which ARCH was born. Although the ARCH process…
We investigate multivariate regular variation in the context of time-homogeneous Markov chains on general vector spaces and in random coefficient linear models. In the first part, we show that the regular variation of the stationary…
This paper considers a simulation-based estimator for a general class of Markovian processes and explores some strong consistency properties of the estimator. The estimation problem is defined over a continuum of invariant distributions…
We present a general framework for studying regularized estimators; such estimators are pervasive in estimation problems wherein "plug-in" type estimators are either ill-defined or ill-behaved. Within this framework, we derive, under…
We consider a process $ X= (X_t)_{t\in \Z}$ belonging to a large class of causal models including AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$), TARCH($\infty$),... models. We assume that the model depends on a parameter $\theta_0 \in \R^d$ and consider the…
In this paper, we develop a complete methodology for detecting time-varying/non time-varying parameters in ARCH processes. For this purpose, we estimate and test various semiparametric versions of the time-varying ARCH model (tv-ARCH) which…
It is common for long financial time series to exhibit gradual change in the unconditional volatility. We propose a new model that captures this type of nonstationarity in a parsimonious way. The model augments the volatility equation of a…
This paper considers the statistical inference of the class of asymmetric power-transformed $\operatorname{GARCH}(1,1)$ models in presence of possible explosiveness. We study the explosive behavior of volatility when the strict stationarity…
The volatility modeling for autoregressive univariate time series is considered. A benchmark approach is the stationary ARCH model of Engle (1982). Motivated by real data evidence, processes with non constant unconditional variance and ARCH…
We study the existence and properties of stationary solution of ARCH-type equation $r_t= \zeta_t \sigma_t$, where $\zeta_t$ are standardized i.i.d. r.v.'s and the conditional variance satisfies an AR(1) equation $\sigma^2_t = Q^2\big(a +…
The AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and its generalized version (GARCH) family of models have grown to encompass a wide range of specifications, each of them is designed to enhance the ability of the model to capture…
Inference for streaming time-series is tightly coupled with the problem of Bayesian on-line state and parameter inference. In this paper we will introduce Dynamic Generalised Linear Models, the class of models often chosen to model…
This project revolves around studying estimators for parameters in different Time Series models and studying their assymptotic properties. We introduce various bootstrap techniques for the estimators obtained. Our special emphasis is on…
In this paper we propose an identification method for latent-variable graphical models associated to autoregressive (AR) Gaussian stationary processes. The identification procedure exploits the approximation of AR processes through…