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This position paper summarizes a recently developed research program focused on inference in the context of data centric science and engineering applications, and forecasts its trajectory forward over the next decade. Often one endeavours…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-06 Ajay Jasra , Kody J. H. Law , Alexander Tarakanov , Fangyuan Yu

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is widely used for sampling from high dimensional target distributions with densities known up to proportionality. While HMC exhibits favorable scaling properties in high dimensions, it struggles with strongly…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-30 Joonha Park

Neural-network quantum states (NQS) offer a powerful and expressive ansatz for representing quantum many-body wave functions. However, their training via Variational Monte Carlo (VMC) methods remains challenging. It is well known that some…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-07-09 Antoine Misery , Luca Gravina , Alessandro Santini , Filippo Vicentini

Continuous level Monte Carlo is an unbiased, continuous version of the celebrated multilevel Monte Carlo method. The approximation level is assumed to be continuous resulting in a stochastic process describing the quantity of interest.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-19 Cedric Aaron Beschle , Andrea Barth

The Bayesian estimation of the unknown parameters of state-space (dynamical) systems has received considerable attention over the past decade, with a handful of powerful algorithms being introduced. In this paper we tackle the theoretical…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-13 Joaquin Miguez , Ines P. Mariño , Manuel A. Vazquez

Time Series Classification (TSC) involved building predictive models for a discrete target variable from ordered, real valued, attributes. Over recent years, a new set of TSC algorithms have been developed which have made significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-27 Alejandro Pasos Ruiz , Michael Flynn , Anthony Bagnall

We revisit the theory of importance weighted variational inference (IWVI), a promising strategy for learning latent variable models. IWVI uses new variational bounds, known as Monte Carlo objectives (MCOs), obtained by replacing intractable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-27 Pierre-Alexandre Mattei , Jes Frellsen

We introduce new affine invariant ensemble Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers that are easy to construct and improve upon existing methods, especially for high-dimensional problems. We first propose a simple derivative-free side move…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-01 Yifan Chen

We introduce an extension of the time-dependent variational Monte Carlo (tVMC) method that adaptively controls the expressivity of the variational quantum state during the simulation of the dynamics. This adaptive tVMC (atVMC) approach is…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-09 Raffaele Salioni , Rocco Martinazzo , Davide Emilio Galli , Christian Apostoli

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are powerful generative models with the salient ability to perform inference. Here, we introduce a quantum variational autoencoder (QVAE): a VAE whose latent generative process is implemented as a quantum…

We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-04 Tom Gunter , Michael A. Osborne , Roman Garnett , Philipp Hennig , Stephen J. Roberts

High-dimensional data are routinely collected in many areas. We are particularly interested in Bayesian classification models in which one or more variables are imbalanced. Current Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-15 Deborshee Sen , Matthias Sachs , Jianfeng Lu , David Dunson

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Existing work on Bayesian decision trees uses MCMC.…

Computation · Statistics 2023-01-24 Efthyvoulos Drousiotis , Paul G. Spirakis , Simon Maskell

We study Monte Carlo estimation of the expected value of sample information (EVSI) which measures the expected benefit of gaining additional information for decision making under uncertainty. EVSI is defined as a nested expectation in which…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-10-05 Tomohiko Hironaka , Michael B. Giles , Takashi Goda , Howard Thom

Variational Monte Carlo (VMC) is an approach for computing ground-state wavefunctions that has recently become more powerful due to the introduction of neural network-based wavefunction parametrizations. However, efficiently training neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-03 Robert J. Webber , Michael Lindsey

Sampling the three-dimensional (3D) spin glass -- i.e., generating equilibrium configurations of a 3D lattice with quenched random couplings -- is widely regarded as one of the central and long-standing open problems in statistical physics.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-30 Tao Chen , Jing Liu , Youjin Deng , Pan Zhang

We focus on generative autoencoders, such as variational or adversarial autoencoders, which jointly learn a generative model alongside an inference model. Generative autoencoders are those which are trained to softly enforce a prior on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-13 Antonia Creswell , Kai Arulkumaran , Anil Anthony Bharath

Informed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been proposed as scalable solutions to Bayesian posterior computation on high-dimensional discrete state spaces, but theoretical results about their convergence behavior in general…

Computation · Statistics 2022-02-01 Quan Zhou , Aaron Smith

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a promising framework for modeling predictive uncertainty and enhancing out-of-distribution robustness (OOD) by estimating the posterior distribution of network parameters. Stochastic Gradient Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Hyunsu Kim , Giung Nam , Chulhee Yun , Hongseok Yang , Juho Lee

In this work, we propose a smart idea to couple importance sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). We advocate a per level approach with as many importance sampling parameters as the number of levels, which enables us to compute the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-10 Ahmed Kebaier , Jérôme Lelong
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