English
Related papers

Related papers: Countdown Regression: Sharp and Calibrated Surviva…

200 papers

Propensity score methods are widely used for estimating treatment effects from observational studies. A popular approach is to estimate propensity scores by maximum likelihood based on logistic regression, and then apply inverse probability…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-24 Zhiqiang Tan

We intend to create a new risk assessment methodology that combines the best characteristics of both risk score and machine learning models. More specifically, we aim to develop a method that, besides having a good performance, offers a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Francisco Valente , Jorge Henriques , Simão Paredes , Teresa Rocha , Paulo de Carvalho , João Morais

Maximum regularized likelihood estimators (MRLEs) are arguably the most established class of estimators in high-dimensional statistics. In this paper, we derive guarantees for MRLEs in Kullback-Leibler divergence, a general measure of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-18 Rui Zhuang , Johannes Lederer

Survival analysis is an important problem in healthcare because it models the relationship between an individual's covariates and the onset time of an event of interest (e.g., death). It is important for survival models to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-04 Thiti Suttaket , Stanley Kok

Survival is a key metric for evaluating standards of care for people living with HIV. In resource-limited settings, high rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU) often result in underestimation of mortality when only observed deaths are…

Although the foundations of ranking are well established, the ranking literature has primarily been focused on simple, unimodal models, e.g. the Mallows and Plackett-Luce models, that define distributions centered around a single total…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Arjun Seshadri , Stephen Ragain , Johan Ugander

Survival analysis is a challenging variation of regression modeling because of the presence of censoring, where the outcome measurement is only partially known, due to, for example, loss to follow up. Such problems come up frequently in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Chirag Nagpal , Steve Yadlowsky , Negar Rostamzadeh , Katherine Heller

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

The conditional survival function of a time-to-event outcome subject to censoring and truncation is a common target of estimation in survival analysis. This parameter may be of scientific interest and also often appears as a nuisance in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-20 Charles J. Wolock , Peter B. Gilbert , Noah Simon , Marco Carone

Recent works have shown that deep neural networks can achieve super-human performance in a wide range of image classification tasks in the medical imaging domain. However, these works have primarily focused on classification accuracy,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-10 Gongbo Liang , Yu Zhang , Xiaoqin Wang , Nathan Jacobs

Survival analysis is a statistical technique used to estimate the time until an event occurs. Although it is applied across a wide range of fields, adjusting for reporting delays under practical constraints remains a significant challenge…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-27 Yuta Shikuri , Hironori Fujisawa

Machine learning (ML) is transforming healthcare, but safe clinical decisions demand reliable uncertainty estimates that standard ML models fail to provide. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular tool that allows users to turn heuristic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Klaus-Rudolf Kladny , Bernhard Schölkopf , Lisa Koch , Christian F. Baumgartner , Michael Muehlebach

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-08 Victor Dheur , Souhaib Ben Taieb

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) in domains such as manufacturing and energy distribution generate complex time series data crucial for Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). While Deep Learning (DL) methods have demonstrated strong…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Alexander Windmann , Henrik Steude , Daniel Boschmann , Oliver Niggemann

The partitioning of data for estimation and calibration critically impacts the performance of propensity score based estimators like inverse probability weighting (IPW) and double/debiased machine learning (DML) frameworks. We extend recent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Sven Klaassen , Jan Rabenseifner , Jannis Kueck , Philipp Bach

Prediction models based on deep neural networks are increasingly gaining attention for fast and accurate virtual screening systems. For decision makings in virtual screening, researchers find it useful to interpret an output of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-18 Soojung Yang , Kyung Hoon Lee , Seongok Ryu

Classification models based on deep neural networks (DNNs) must be calibrated to measure the reliability of predictions. Some recent calibration methods have employed a probabilistic model on the probability simplex. However, these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Yasushi Esaki , Akihiro Nakamura , Keisuke Kawano , Ryoko Tokuhisa , Takuro Kutsuna

This paper focuses on quantifying and estimating the predictive accuracy of prognostic models for time-to-event outcomes with competing events. We consider the time-dependent discrimination and calibration metrics, including the receiver…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-14 Cai Wu , Liang Li

A targeted learning (TL) framework is developed to estimate the difference in the restricted mean survival time (RMST) for a clinical trial with time-to-event outcomes. The approach starts by defining the target estimand as the RMST…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Man Jin , Yixin Fang

Irradiation-induced void swelling is a critical degradation mechanism for structural materials in nuclear reactors, dictating component operational lifespan and safety. While recent machine learning (ML) approaches have improved the…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-03 Minhee Kim , Yong Yang
‹ Prev 1 3 4 5 6 7 10 Next ›