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We address the challenge of forecasting counterfactual outcomes in a panel data with missing entries and temporally dependent latent factors -- a common scenario in causal inference, where estimating unobserved potential outcomes ahead of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Navonil Deb , Raaz Dwivedi , Sumanta Basu

Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) is a statistical method for identifying and confirming the presence of latent factors among observed variables through the analysis of their covariance structure. Compared to alternative factor models, CFA…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Yifan Yang , Tianzhou Ma , Chuan Bi , Shuo Chen

Multimodal data, where different types of data are collected from the same subjects, are fast emerging in a large variety of scientific applications. Factor analysis is commonly used in integrative analysis of multimodal data, and is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-31 Quefeng Li , Lexin Li

Factors models are routinely used to analyze high-dimensional data in both single-study and multi-study settings. Bayesian inference for such models relies on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which scale poorly as the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Blake Hansen , Alejandra Avalos-Pacheco , Massimiliano Russo , Roberta De Vito

We consider the probabilistic analogue to neural network matrix factorization (Dziugaite & Roy, 2015), which we construct with Bayesian neural networks and fit with variational inference. We find that a linear model fit with variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-16 Onno Kampman , Creighton Heaukulani

Functional data are frequently accompanied by a parametric template that describes the typical shapes of the functions. However, these parametric templates can incur significant bias, which undermines both utility and interpretability. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-18 Daniel R. Kowal , Antonio Canale

Faraday complexity describes whether a spectropolarimetric observation has simple or complex magnetic structure. Quickly determining the Faraday complexity of a spectropolarimetric observation is important for processing large, polarised…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2021-07-01 M. J. Alger , J. D. Livingston , N. M. McClure-Griffiths , J. L. Nabaglo , O. I. Wong , C. S. Ong

Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-27 Qicheng Chang , Yishen Wang , Xiao Lu , Di Shi , Haifeng Li , Jiajun Duan , Zhiwei Wang

Software vulnerability detection can be formulated as a binary classification problem that determines whether a given code snippet contains security defects. Existing multimodal methods typically fuse Natural Code Sequence (NCS)…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Yun Bian , Yi Chen , HaiQuan Wang , ShiHao Li , Zhe Cui

Well-calibrated probabilistic regression models are a crucial learning component in robotics applications as datasets grow rapidly and tasks become more complex. Unfortunately, classical regression models are usually either probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Hany Abdulsamad , Peter Nickl , Pascal Klink , Jan Peters

Factor analysis is a flexible technique for assessment of multivariate dependence and codependence. Besides being an exploratory tool used to reduce the dimensionality of multivariate data, it allows estimation of common factors that often…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-19 Kelly C. M. Gonçalves , Afonso C. B. Silva

This paper develops a systematic parametric method for analyzing stochastic systems under volatility uncertainty within the $G$-expectation framework. Leveraging the dual representation of the $G$-expectation as a supremum over a family of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-27 Guangqian Zhao

Many single-target regression problems require estimates of uncertainty along with the point predictions. Probabilistic regression algorithms are well-suited for these tasks. However, the options are much more limited when the prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-08 Michael O'Malley , Adam M. Sykulski , Rick Lumpkin , Alejandro Schuler

Optical computing often employs tailor-made hardware to implement specific algorithms, trading generality for improved performance in key aspects like speed and power efficiency. An important computing approach that is still missing its…

Particle physics experiments such as those run in the Large Hadron Collider result in huge quantities of data, which are boiled down to a few numbers from which it is hoped that a signal will be detected. We discuss a simple probability…

Applications · Statistics 2011-02-18 A. C. Davison , N. Sartori

Traditional methods for covariate adjustment of treatment means in designed experiments are inherently conditional on the observed covariate values. In order to develop a coherent general methodology for analysis of covariance, we propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-01-19 James G. Booth , Walter T. Federer , Martin T. Wells , Russell D. Wolfinger

We present a general probabilistic formalism for cross-identifying astronomical point sources in multiple observations. Our Bayesian approach, symmetric in all observations, is the foundation of a unified framework for object matching,…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 Tamas Budavari , Alexander S. Szalay

The relevance of determinacy coefficients as indicators for the validity of factor score predictors has regularly been emphasized. Previous simulation studies revealed biased determinacy coefficients for factor score predictors based on…

Applications · Statistics 2023-05-12 André Beauducel , Norbert Hilger , Anneke Weide

We propose Macau, a powerful and flexible Bayesian factorization method for heterogeneous data. Our model can factorize any set of entities and relations that can be represented by a relational model, including tensors and also multiple…

This paper considers the problem of robustly estimating the parameters of a heavy-tailed multivariate distribution when the covariance matrix is known to have the structure of a low-rank matrix plus a diagonal matrix as considered in factor…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-30 Rui Zhou , Junyan Liu , Sandeep Kumar , Daniel P. Palomar