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Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) or diffusions are continuous-valued continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in the applied and mathematical sciences. Simulating paths from these processes is usually an intractable problem,…

Computation · Statistics 2020-05-27 Qi Wang , Vinayak Rao , Yee Whye Teh

We propose quantum algorithms that provide provable speedups for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods commonly used for sampling from probability distributions of the form $\pi \propto e^{-f}$, where $f$ is a potential function. Our…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-07 Guneykan Ozgul , Xiantao Li , Mehrdad Mahdavi , Chunhao Wang

Many problems of practical interest rely on Continuous-time Markov chains~(CTMCs) defined over combinatorial state spaces, rendering the computation of transition probabilities, and hence probabilistic inference, difficult or impossible…

Path integral quantum Monte Carlo (PIMC) is a method for estimating thermal equilibrium properties of stoquastic quantum spin systems by sampling from a classical Gibbs distribution using Markov chain Monte Carlo. The PIMC method has been…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-02-22 Elizabeth Crosson , Aram W. Harrow

In many problems, complex non-Gaussian and/or nonlinear models are required to accurately describe a physical system of interest. In such cases, Monte Carlo algorithms are remarkably flexible and extremely powerful approaches to solve such…

Computation · Statistics 2015-04-23 Thi Le Thu Nguyen , Francois Septier , Gareth W. Peters , Yves Delignon

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms which are primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Single instances of MCMC methods are widely…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-27 Alessandro Varsi , Lykourgos Kekempanos , Jeyarajan Thiyagalingam , Simon Maskell

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods comprise one of the most successful approaches to approximate Bayesian filtering. However, SMC without good proposal distributions struggle in high dimensions. We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2016-12-30 Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

Sequential Monte Carlo squared (SMC$^2$) methods can be used for parameter inference of intractable likelihood state-space models. These methods replace the likelihood with an unbiased particle filter estimator, similarly to particle Markov…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-24 Imke Botha , Robert Kohn , Leah South , Christopher Drovandi

This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…

This paper addresses finite sample stability properties of sequential Monte Carlo methods for approximating sequences of probability distributions. The results presented herein are applicable in the scenario where the start and end…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-19 Nick Whiteley

The particle filter (PF), also known as sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), approximates high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants in the discrete-time setting. To reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-05 Jianfeng Lu , Yuliang Wang

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for performing approximate inference in complex probabilistic models of continuous variables. In common with many MCMC methods, however, the standard HMC…

Computation · Statistics 2017-04-12 Matthew M. Graham , Amos J. Storkey

We present Generative Monte Carlo (GMC), a novel paradigm for particle transport simulation that integrates generative artificial intelligence directly into the stochastic solution of the linear Boltzmann equation. By reformulating the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-12-17 Joseph A. Farmer , Aidan Murray , Johannes Krotz , Ryan G. McClarren

In online clustering problems, there is often a large amount of uncertainty over possible cluster assignments that cannot be resolved until more data are observed. This difficulty is compounded when clusters follow complex distributions, as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-17 Connie Trojan , Pavel Myshkov , Paul Fearnhead , James Hensman , Tom Minka , Christopher Nemeth

Approximate Bayesian computation methods are useful for generative models with intractable likelihoods. These methods are however sensitive to the dimension of the parameter space, requiring exponentially increasing resources as this…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-09 Grégoire Clarté , Christian P. Robert , Robin Ryder , Julien Stoehr

The Metropolis algorithm is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm used to simulate from parameter distributions of interest, such as generalized linear model parameters. The "Metropolis step" is a keystone concept that underlies…

Computation · Statistics 2023-08-31 Alexander P Keil , Jessie K Edwards , Ashley I Naimi , Stephen R Cole

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-11 Maxim Rabinovich , Elaine Angelino , Michael I. Jordan

Performing exact Bayesian inference for complex models is computationally intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms can provide reliable approximations of the posterior distribution but are expensive for large datasets and…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-09 Maxime Vono , Daniel Paulin , Arnaud Doucet

We consider a statistical test whose p-value can only be approximated using Monte Carlo simulations. We are interested in deciding whether the p-value for an observed data set lies above or below a given threshold such as 5%. We want to…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-10 Dong Ding , Axel Gandy , Georg Hahn

Sampling the parameters of high-dimensional Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMC) is a challenging problem with important applications in many fields of applied statistics. In this work a recently proposed type of non-reversible…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-01 Tingting Zhao , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté