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We study the estimation and concentration on its expectation of the probability to observe data further than a specified distance from a given iid sample in a metric space. The problem extends the classical problem of estimation of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-23 Andreas Maurer

In this paper, we use the framework of mod-$\phi$ convergence to prove precise large or moderate deviations for quite general sequences of real valued random variables $(X_{n})_{n \in \mathbb{N}}$, which can be lattice or non-lattice…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-14 Valentin Féray , Pierre-Loïc Méliot , Ashkan Nikeghbali

Lower bounds on fluctuations of thermodynamic currents depend on the nature of time: discrete or continuous. To understand the physical reason, we compare current fluctuations in discrete-time Markov chains and continuous-time master…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-03-21 Davide Chiuchiù , Simone Pigolotti

The long-term behavior of a supercritical branching random walk can be described and analyzed with the help of Biggins' martingales, parametrized by real or complex numbers. The study of these martingales with complex parameters is a rather…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-17 Alexander Iksanov , Konrad Kolesko , Matthias Meiners

Computational implementation of optimal transport barycenters for a set of target probability measures requires a form of approximation, a widespread solution being empirical approximation of measures. We provide an $O(\sqrt{N/n})$…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-19 Léo Portales , Edouard Pauwels , Elsa Cazelles

Randomness in financial markets requires modern and robust multivariate models of risk measures. This paper proposes a new approach for modeling multivariate risk measures under Wasserstein barycenters of probability measures supported on…

Applications · Statistics 2020-08-14 M. Andrea Arias-Serna , Jean-Michel Loubes , Francisco J. Caro-Lopera

Power moments, modified moments, and optimized moments are powerful tools for solving microscopic models of macroscopic systems; however the expansion of the density of states as a continued fraction does not converge to the macroscopic…

Materials Science · Physics 2009-11-11 Roger Haydock , C. M. M. Nex

We carry out the asymptotic analysis of repulsive ensembles of N particles which are discrete analogues of continuous 1d log-gases or beta-ensembles of random matrix theory. The ensembles that we study have several groups of particles which…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-03 Gaëtan Borot , Vadim Gorin , Alice Guionnet

Large crossed data sets, described by generalized linear mixed models, have become increasingly common and provide challenges for statistical analysis. At very large sizes it becomes desirable to have the computational costs of estimation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-15 Katelyn Gao , Art B. Owen

We consider the problem of identifying a mixture of Gaussian distributions with same unknown covariance matrix by their sequence of moments up to certain order. Our approach rests on studying the moment varieties obtained by taking special…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-09 Daniele Agostini , Carlos Améndola , Kristian Ranestad

General relations are found between the measure of the uniformity of distributions on the phase space and the first moments and correlations of extensive variables for systems close to thermal equilibrium. The role played by the parameter…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Arkadiusz Majka , Wojciech Wislicki

The problem is sequence prediction in the following setting. A sequence x1,..., xn,... of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) mu. After observing each outcome, it is required to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-10-19 Daniil Ryabko

We prove the large deviations principle for empirical Bures-Wasserstein barycenters of independent, identically-distributed samples of covariance matrices and covariance operators. As an application, we explore some consequences of our…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-18 Adam Quinn Jaffe , Leonardo V. Santoro

This paper deals with the scenario approach to robust optimization. This relies on a random sampling of the possibly infinite number of constraints induced by uncertainties in the parameters of an optimization problem. Solving the resulting…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-08 Fabien Lauer

We register a random sequence which has the following properties: it has three segments being the homogeneous Markov processes. Each segment has his own one step transition probability law and the length of the segment is unknown and…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-21 Krzysztof Szajowski

The geometric tangent cone to a probability measure $\mu$ is a set of measure-valued applications that are almost geodesics. This is a nonlocal condition, typically lost when conditioning the measure on a given set. We show that if one…

Metric Geometry · Mathematics 2026-03-03 Averil Aussedat

Theoretical results for importance sampling rely on the existence of certain moments of the importance weights, which are the ratios between the proposal and target densities. In particular, a finite variance ensures square root convergence…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-07-31 Michael K. Pitt , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Marcel Scharth , Robert Kohn

The conditional moment problem is a powerful formulation for describing structural causal parameters in terms of observables, a prominent example being instrumental variable regression. A standard approach reduces the problem to a finite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-24 Andrew Bennett , Nathan Kallus

In this work, we obtain the central limit theorem for fluctuations of Young diagrams around their limit shape in the bulk of the "spectrum" of partitions of a large integer n (under the Plancherel measure). More specifically, we show that,…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 L. V. Bogachev , Z. G. Su

We study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to linear inverse problems under discrete observations. We use the discrete Fourier transform to convert our model into a truncated Gaussian sequence model, that is closely related to the classical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-31 Shota Gugushvili , Aad van der Vaart , Dong Yan
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