Related papers: Doubly Robust Bayesian Inference for Non-Stationar…

We present a Bayesian nonparametric system reliability model which scales well and provides a great deal of flexibility in modeling. The Bayesian approach naturally handles the disparate amounts of component and subsystem data that may…

We study the stability of posterior predictive inferences to the specification of the likelihood model and perturbations of the data generating process. In modern big data analyses, useful broad structural judgements may be elicited from…

The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…

In this paper we present a new algorithm for online (sequential) inference in Bayesian neural networks, and show its suitability for tackling contextual bandit problems. The key idea is to combine the extended Kalman filter (which locally…

Identifying changes in the generative process of sequential data, known as changepoint detection, has become an increasingly important topic for a wide variety of fields. A recently developed approach, which we call EXact Online Bayesian…

For linear models with a diverging number of parameters, it has recently been shown that modified versions of Bayesian information criterion (BIC) can identify the true model consistently. However, in many cases there is little…

This paper describes a new algorithm for exact Bayesian inference that is based on a recently proposed compositional semantics of Bayesian networks in terms of channels. The paper concentrates on the ideas behind this algorithm, involving a…

Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…

We undertake Bayesian learning of the high-dimensional functional relationship between a system parameter vector and an observable, that is in general tensor-valued. The ultimate aim is Bayesian inverse prediction of the system parameters,…

Bayesian inference and Gaussian processes are widely used in applications ranging from robotics and control to biological systems. Many of these applications are safety-critical and require a characterization of the uncertainty associated…

In this paper we study online change point detection in dynamic networks with time heterogeneous missing pattern within networks and dependence across the time course. The missingness probabilities, the entrywise sparsity of networks, the…

We propose a general Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference in the point treatment setting. The joint distribution of the observed data (outcome, treatment, and confounders) is modeled using an enriched Dirichlet process.…

Berger et al. (2001) and Ren et al. (2012) derived noninformative priors for Gaussian process models of spatially correlated data using the reference prior approach (Berger, Bernardo, 1991). The priors have good statistical properties and…

This article studies the problem of online non-parametric change point detection in multivariate data streams. We approach the problem through the lens of kernel-based two-sample testing and introduce a sequential testing procedure based on…

The prompt online detection of abrupt changes in image data is essential for timely decision-making in broad applications, from video surveillance to manufacturing quality control. Existing methods, however, face three key challenges.…

The Gaussian process (GP) regression can be severely biased when the data are contaminated by outliers. This paper presents a new robust GP regression algorithm that iteratively trims the most extreme data points. While the new algorithm…

Bayesian inference can often be sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters of the prior or likelihood, yet defining and quantifying this sensitivity in a principled and computationally feasible way remains challenging in practice.…

Robustness to outliers is a central issue in real-world machine learning applications. While replacing a model to a heavy-tailed one (e.g., from Gaussian to Student-t) is a standard approach for robustification, it can only be applied to…

Sensitivity analyses reveal the influence of various modeling choices on the outcomes of statistical analyses. While theoretically appealing, they are overwhelmingly inefficient for complex Bayesian models. In this work, we propose…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a well-known nonparametric Bayesian inference technique, but they suffer from scalability problems for large sample sizes, and their performance can degrade for non-stationary or spatially heterogeneous data. In…