English
Related papers

Related papers: Selecting Reduced Models in the Cross-Entropy Meth…

200 papers

When the data are stored in a distributed manner, direct application of traditional statistical inference procedures is often prohibitive due to communication cost and privacy concerns. This paper develops and investigates two…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-04 Jianqing Fan , Yongyi Guo , Kaizheng Wang

We review the recently developed critical minimum energy-subspace (CrMES) technique. This scheme produces an immense optimization of popular algorithms, such as the Wang-Landau (WL) and broad histogram methods, by predicting the essential…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-02-01 Anastasios Malakis , Nikolaos G. Fytas

Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Justin Finkel , Paul A. O'Gorman

This paper introduces and develops a novel variable importance score function in the context of ensemble learning and demonstrates its appeal both theoretically and empirically. Our proposed score function is simple and more straightforward…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-01-27 Ernest Fokoué

This work proposes an adaptive sequential Monte Carlo sampling algorithm to solve Bayesian inverse problems in scenarios where likelihood evaluations are costly but can be approximated using a surrogate model built from previous evaluations…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-26 Frederic Cerou , Patrick Heas , Mathias Rousset

Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo technique for efficiently estimating the likelihood of rare events by biasing the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By drawing weighted samples from a learned proposal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Liam A. Kruse , Marc R. Schlichting , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Noise-contrastive estimation (NCE) is a statistically consistent method for learning unnormalized probabilistic models. It has been empirically observed that the choice of the noise distribution is crucial for NCE's performance. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-22 Bingbin Liu , Elan Rosenfeld , Pradeep Ravikumar , Andrej Risteski

Despite empirical risk minimization (ERM) is widely applied in the machine learning community, its performance is limited on data with spurious correlation or subpopulation that is introduced by hidden attributes. Existing literature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Hongyu Shen , Zhizhen Zhao

Importance sampling (IS) is a Monte Carlo methodology that allows for approximation of a target distribution using weighted samples generated from another proposal distribution. Adaptive importance sampling (AIS) implements an iterative…

Computation · Statistics 2018-06-04 Yousef El-Laham , Victor Elvira , Monica F. Bugallo

In this paper, we propose a novel method, aggregation cross-entropy (ACE), for sequence recognition from a brand new perspective. The ACE loss function exhibits competitive performance to CTC and the attention mechanism, with much quicker…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-04-19 Zecheng Xie , Yaoxiong Huang , Yuanzhi Zhu , Lianwen Jin , Yuliang Liu , Lele Xie

Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-13 Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

The problem of finding the expected value of a statistic of a locally stable point process in a bounded region is addressed. We propose an adaptive importance sampling for solving the problem. In our proposal, we restrict the importance…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-04 Hee-Geon Kang , Sunggon Kim

We consider systems of slow--fast diffusions with small noise in the slow component. We construct provably logarithmic asymptotically optimal importance schemes for the estimation of rare events based on the moderate deviations principle.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Matthew R. Morse , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We present an algorithm for finding the probabilities of rare events in nonequilibrium processes. The algorithm consists of evolving the system with a modified dynamics for which the required event occurs more frequently. By keeping track…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-04-07 Anupam Kundu , Sanjib Sabhapandit , Abhishek Dhar

Herding is a deterministic algorithm used to generate data points that can be regarded as random samples satisfying input moment conditions. The algorithm is based on the complex behavior of a high-dimensional dynamical system and is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-10 Hiroshi Yamashita , Hideyuki Suzuki , Kazuyuki Aihara

In deep learning classifiers, the cost function usually takes the form of a combination of SoftMax and CrossEntropy functions. The SoftMax unit transforms the scores predicted by the model network into assessments of the degree…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-29 Wladyslaw Skarbek

Accurate and efficient estimation of rare events probabilities is of significant importance, since often the occurrences of such events have widespread impacts. The focus in this work is on precisely quantifying these probabilities, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-23 Konstantinos G. Papakonstantinou , Hamed Nikbakht , Elsayed Eshra

In this work we introduce the Multi-Index Stochastic Collocation method (MISC) for computing statistics of the solution of a PDE with random data. MISC is a combination technique based on mixed differences of spatial approximations and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-07-22 Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Fabio Nobile , Lorenzo Tamellini , Raul Tempone

The maximum likelihood estimation is computationally demanding for large datasets, particularly when the likelihood function includes integrals. Subsampling can reduce the computational burden, but it often results in efficiency loss.This…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-27 Miaomiao Su , Qihua Wang , Ruoyu Wang

We propose a deep importance sampling method that is suitable for estimating rare event probabilities in high-dimensional problems. We approximate the optimal importance distribution in a general importance sampling problem as the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-26 Tiangang Cui , Sergey Dolgov , Robert Scheichl