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This study explores the emergence of counter-inferential behavior in natural and artificial cognitive systems, that is, patterns in which agents misattribute empirical success or suppress adaptation, leading to epistemic rigidity or…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Serge Dolgikh

Many classical models of collective behavior assume that emergent dynamics result from external and observable interactions among individuals. However, how collective dynamics in human populations depend on the internal psychological…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-09-27 Alice C Schwarze , Mari Kawakatsu , Sarah Iams , Nina H Fefferman , Tahra L Eissa

Causality lays the foundation for the trajectory of our world. Causal inference (CI), which aims to infer intrinsic causal relations among variables of interest, has emerged as a crucial research topic. Nevertheless, the lack of observation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Yaochen Zhu , Yinhan He , Jing Ma , Mengxuan Hu , Sheng Li , Jundong Li

Causal inference is fundamental across scientific disciplines, yet existing methods struggle to capture instantaneous, time-evolving causal relationships in complex, high-dimensional systems. In this paper, assimilative causal inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Marios Andreou , Nan Chen , Erik Bollt

There are many examples of human decision making which cannot be modeled by classical probabilistic and logic models, on which the current AI systems are based. Hence the need for a modeling framework which can enable intelligent systems to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-08-15 Sagar Uprety , Dawei Song

To make informed decisions in natural environments that change over time, humans must update their beliefs as new observations are gathered. Studies exploring human inference as a dynamical process that unfolds in time have focused on…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-03-03 Arthur Prat-Carrabin , Robert C. Wilson , Jonathan D. Cohen , Rava Azeredo da Silveira

Causal inference identifies cause-and-effect relationships between variables. While traditional approaches rely on data to reveal causal links, a recently developed method, assimilative causal inference (ACI), integrates observations with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-28 Marios Andreou , Nan Chen

In decision making tasks under uncertainty, humans display characteristic biases in seeking, integrating, and acting upon information relevant to the task. Here, we reexamine data from previous carefully designed experiments, collected at…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Soumya Chatterjee , Pradeep Shenoy

Imitation learning is a powerful approach for learning autonomous driving policy by leveraging data from expert driver demonstrations. However, driving policies trained via imitation learning that neglect the causal structure of expert…

The dynamics of many social, technological and economic phenomena are driven by individual human actions, turning the quantitative understanding of human behavior into a central question of modern science. Current models of human dynamics,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Albert-László Barabási

We model transport of individuals across a heterogeneous scale-free network where a few weakly connected nodes exhibit heavy-tailed residence times. Using the empirical law Axiom of Cumulative Inertia and fractional analysis we show that…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-03-08 Sergei Fedotov , Helena Stage

Current models of human dynamics, used from risk assessment to communications, assume that human actions are randomly distributed in time and thus well approximated by Poisson processes. We provide direct evidence that for five human…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-11 A. Vazquez , J. Gama Oliveira , Z. Dezso , K. -I. Goh , I. Kondor , A. -L. Barabasi

A central puzzle for the behavioural sciences and for human-facing artificial intelligence is the persistence of within-person variability. The same individual, presented with the same observable input, produces different outcomes on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Suraj Biswas , Saurav Gupta , Pritam Mukherjee

Human interactions are influenced by emotions, temperament, and affection, often conflicting with individuals' underlying preferences. Without explicit knowledge of those preferences, judging whether behaviour is appropriate becomes…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-11-05 Victor Villin , Christos Dimitrakakis

Adaptive experiments, including efficient average treatment effect estimation and multi-armed bandit algorithms, have garnered attention in various applications, such as social experiments, clinical trials, and online advertisement…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-24 Masahiro Kato

The dynamics of a wide range of real systems, from email patterns to earthquakes, display a bursty, intermittent nature, characterized by short timeframes of intensive activity followed by long times of no or reduced activity. The…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Kwang-Il Goh , Albert-Laszlo Barabasi

Optimization of human-AI teams hinges on the AI's ability to tailor its interaction to individual human teammates. A common hypothesis in adaptive AI research is that minor differences in people's predisposition to trust can significantly…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-07-28 Nikolos Gurney , David V. Pynadath , Ning Wang

Behaviour change lies at the heart of many observable collective phenomena such as the transmission and control of infectious diseases, adoption of public health policies, and migration of animals to new habitats. Representing the process…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-03 Roben Delos Reyes , Hugo Lyons Keenan , Cameron Zachreson

AI has the potential to augment human decision making. However, even high-performing models can produce inaccurate predictions when deployed. These inaccuracies, combined with automation bias, where humans overrely on AI predictions, can…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Sarah Jabbour , David Fouhey , Nikola Banovic , Stephanie D. Shepard , Ella Kazerooni , Michael W. Sjoding , Jenna Wiens

Agentic AI, with goal-directed, proactive, and autonomous decision-making capabilities, offers a compelling opportunity to address movement-related risks in human activity, including the persistent hazard of falls among elderly populations.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-22 Farbod Zorriassatine , Ahmad Lotfi
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