Related papers: Introducing shrinkage in heavy-tailed state space …
Flexible spatial models that allow transitions between tail dependence classes have recently appeared in the literature. However, inference for these models is computationally prohibitive, even in moderate dimensions, due to the necessity…
In this chapter, we review variance selection for time-varying parameter (TVP) models for univariate and multivariate time series within a Bayesian framework. We show how both continuous as well as discrete spike-and-slab shrinkage priors…
The training of high-dimensional regression models on comparably sparse data is an important yet complicated topic, especially when there are many more model parameters than observations in the data. From a Bayesian perspective, inference…
We propose a model to forecast large realized covariance matrices of returns, applying it to the constituents of the S\&P 500 daily. To address the curse of dimensionality, we decompose the return covariance matrix using standard firm-level…
Multivariate stochastic volatility models with skew distributions are proposed. Exploiting Cholesky stochastic volatility modeling, univariate stochastic volatility processes with leverage effect and generalized hyperbolic skew…
Methods for choosing a fixed set of knot locations in additive spline models are fairly well established in the statistical literature. While most of these methods are in principle directly extendable to non-additive surface models, they…
We propose a flexible class of models based on scale mixture of uniform distributions to construct shrinkage priors for covariance matrix estimation. This new class of priors enjoys a number of advantages over the traditional scale mixture…
We develop Bayesian predictive stacking for geostatistical models, where the primary inferential objective is to provide inference on the latent spatial random field and conduct spatial predictions at arbitrary locations. We exploit…
Vector autoregression (VAR) models are widely used for forecasting and macroeconomic analysis, yet they remain limited by their reliance on a linear parameterization. Recent research has introduced nonparametric alternatives, such as…
In the present work, we consider variable selection and shrinkage for the Gaussian dynamic linear regression within a Bayesian framework. In particular, we propose a novel method that allows for time-varying sparsity, based on an extension…
Time series forecasting based on deep architectures has been gaining popularity in recent years due to their ability to model complex non-linear temporal dynamics. The recurrent neural network is one such model capable of handling…
This paper develops robust inference methods for predictive regressions that address key challenges posed by endogenously persistent or heavy-tailed regressors, as well as persistent volatility in errors. Building on the Cauchy estimation…
Isotonic regression or monotone function estimation is a problem of estimating function values under monotonicity constraints, which appears naturally in many scientific fields. This paper proposes a new Bayesian method with global-local…
Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and its variants enable modern artificial intelligence. However, theoretical understanding lags far behind their empirical success. It is widely believed that SGD has a curious ability to avoid sharp local…
We present a locally adaptive nonparametric curve fitting method that operates within a fully Bayesian framework. This method uses shrinkage priors to induce sparsity in order-k differences in the latent trend function, providing a…
Volatility clustering is a common phenomenon in financial time series. Typically, linear models can be used to describe the temporal autocorrelation of the (logarithmic) variance of returns. Considering the difficulty in estimating this…
We show that prediction performance for global-local shrinkage regression can overcome two major difficulties of global shrinkage regression: (i) the amount of relative shrinkage is monotone in the singular values of the design matrix and…
One of the standardized features of financial data is that log-returns are uncorrelated, but absolute log-returns or their squares namely the fluctuating volatility are correlated and is characterized by heavy tailed in the sense that some…
Time-varying parameter (TVP) regressions commonly assume that time-variation in the coefficients is determined by a simple stochastic process such as a random walk. While such models are capable of capturing a wide range of dynamic…
Jump stochastic volatility models are central to financial econometrics for volatility forecasting, portfolio risk management, and derivatives pricing. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are computationally unfeasible for the…