Related papers: Bayesian Higher Order Hidden Markov Models

We study sequential Bayesian inference in stochastic kinetic models with latent factors. Assuming continuous observation of all the reactions, our focus is on joint inference of the unknown reaction rates and the dynamic latent states,…

Bottom-Up Hidden Tree Markov Model is a highly expressive model for tree-structured data. Unfortunately, it cannot be used in practice due to the intractable size of its state-transition matrix. We propose a new approximation which lies on…

Jump Markov linear models consists of a finite number of linear state space models and a discrete variable encoding the jumps (or switches) between the different linear models. Identifying jump Markov linear models makes for a challenging…

B-spline-based hidden Markov models employ B-splines to specify the emission distributions, offering a more flexible modelling approach to data than conventional parametric HMMs. We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, enabling the…

We define an evolving in-time Bayesian neural network called a Hidden Markov Neural Network, which addresses the crucial challenge in time-series forecasting and continual learning: striking a balance between adapting to new data and…

Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells. These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not…

Gaussian latent variable models are a key class of Bayesian hierarchical models with applications in many fields. Performing Bayesian inference on such models can be challenging as Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms struggle with the…

Hierarchical probabilistic models are able to use a large number of parameters to create a model with a high representation power. However, it is well known that increasing the number of parameters also increases the complexity of the model…

Regression models are used in a wide range of applications providing a powerful scientific tool for researchers from different fields. Linear, or simple parametric, models are often not sufficient to describe complex relationships between…

We consider posterior sampling in the very common Bayesian hierarchical model in which observed data depends on high-dimensional latent variables that, in turn, depend on relatively few hyperparameters. When the full conditional over the…

We present a non-parametric Bayesian approach to structure learning with hidden causes. Previous Bayesian treatments of this problem define a prior over the number of hidden causes and use algorithms such as reversible jump Markov chain…

Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer $k$-th order Markov chains, for arbitrary $k$, from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both…

Bayesian inference for nonlinear diffusions, observed at discrete times, is a challenging task that has prompted the development of a number of algorithms, mainly within the computational statistics community. We propose a new direction,…

In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic model for learning nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) that is commonly used for predicting missing values and finding hidden patterns in the data, in which the matrix factors are latent…

In this paper we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian model selection in linear models with heavy-tailed distributions. We consider a finite mixture of distributions to model a latent variable where each component of the mixture…

We consider the problem of inferring a latent function in a probabilistic model of data. When dependencies of the latent function are specified by a Gaussian process and the data likelihood is complex, efficient computation often involve…

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

We present a new approach to Bayesian inference that entirely avoids Markov chain simulation, by constructing a map that pushes forward the prior measure to the posterior measure. Existence and uniqueness of a suitable measure-preserving…

The use of non parametric hidden Markov models with finite state space is flourishing in practice while few theoretical guarantees are known in this framework. Here, we study asymptotic guarantees for these models in the Bayesian framework.…

Deep directed generative models have attracted much attention recently due to their expressive representation power and the ability of ancestral sampling. One major difficulty of learning directed models with many latent variables is the…