Related papers: Report for the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry
Event-driven architecture has been widely adopted in the software industry, emerging as an alternative to modular development to support rapid adaptations of constantly evolving systems. However, little is known about the effects of…
Using strategic timetables as input for railway network design has become increasingly popular among western European railway infrastructure operators. Although both railway timetabling and railway network design on their own are well…
Obtaining a viable schedule baseline that meets all project constraints is one of the main issues for project managers. The literature on this topic focuses mainly on methods to obtain schedules that meet resource restrictions and, more…
Most people are risk-averse (risk-seeking) when they expect to gain (lose). Based on a generalization of ``expected utility theory'' which takes this into account, we introduce an automaton mimicking the dynamics of economic operations.…
Complexity is an inherent attribute of any project. The purpose of defining and documenting complexity is to have an early warning tool allowing a project team to focus on certain areas and aspects of the project in order to prevent and…
Financial institutions have to allocate so-called "economic capital" in order to guarantee solvency to their clients and counter parties. Mathematically speaking, any methodology of allocating capital is a "risk measure", i.e. a function…
A randomized trial allows estimation of the causal effect of an intervention compared to a control in the overall population and in subpopulations defined by baseline characteristics. Often, however, clinical questions also arise regarding…
We propose a novel strategy for multivariate extreme value index estimation. In applications such as finance, volatility and risk present in the components of a multivariate time series are often driven by the same underlying factors, such…
After major disasters, formal inquiries become arenas where responsibility is publicly contested. While extensive research has examined blame attribution through qualitative and actor-centred approaches, the relational structure of blame…
Regulatory requirements dictate that financial institutions must calculate risk capital (funds that must be retained to cover future losses) at least annually. Procedures for doing this have been well-established for many years, but recent…
Machine learning algorithms are increasingly influencing our decisions and interacting with us in all parts of our daily lives. Therefore, just like for power plants, highways, and myriad other engineered sociotechnical systems, we must…
We study the difference between the level of systemic risk that is empirically measured on an interbank network and the risk that can be deduced from the balance sheets composition of the participating banks. Using generalised DebtRank…
Lock-in, the escalating commitment of decision-makers to an ineffective course of action, has the potential to explain the large cost overruns in large scale transportation infrastructure projects. Lock-in can occur both at the…
We develop a systemic risk framework to explore cascading systemic failures in networked control systems. A time-delayed version of the vehicle platooning problem is used as a benchmark to study the interplay among network connectivity,…
This paper takes stock of megaproject management, an emerging and hugely costly field of study. First, it answers the question of how large megaprojects are by measuring them in the units mega, giga, and tera, concluding we are presently…
Systematic and multifactor risk models are revisited via methods which were already successfully developed in signal processing and in automatic control. The results, which bypass the usual criticisms on those risk modeling, are illustrated…
The maintenance of big cities public transport service quality requires constant monitoring, which may become an expensive and time-consuming practice. The perception of quality, from the users point of view is an important aspect of…
This paper proposes a bilevel transit network design problem considering supply side uncertainty. The upper level problem determines frequency settings to simultaneously maximize the efficiency and equity measures, which are defined by the…
We study the properties of Expected Shortfall from the point of view of financial risk management. This measure --- which emerges as a natural remedy in some cases where Value at Risk (VaR) is not able to distinguish portfolios which bear…
Sustainability and resilience of urban systems are multifaceted concepts, requiring information about multiple system attributes to adequately evaluate and characterize. However, despite the scientific consensus on the multivariate nature…