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Increasingly larger data sets of processes in space and time ask for statistical models and methods that can cope with such data. We show that the solution of a stochastic advection-diffusion partial differential equation provides a…
In the option valuation literature, the shortcomings of one factor stochastic volatility models have traditionally been addressed by adding jumps to the stock price process. An alternate approach in the context of option pricing and…
In this paper, a novel method for data splitting is presented: an iterative procedure divides the input dataset of volcanic eruption, chosen as the proposed use case, into two parts using a dissimilarity index calculated on the cumulative…
This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology, which allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and model stock market crashes. Utilizing high frequency data, we estimate the daily…
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…
Stochastic volatility models that treat the variance of a time series as a stochastic process have proven to be important tools for analyzing dynamic variability. Current methods for fitting and conducting inference on stochastic volatility…
The effect of stochasticity, in the form of Gaussian white noise, in a predator-prey model with two distinct time-scales is presented. A supercritical singular Hopf bifurcation yields a Type II excitability in the deterministic model. We…
In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…
This dissertation develops and justifies a novel method for deriving approximate formulas to estimate two parameters in stochastic volatility diffusion models with exponentially-affine characteristic functions and single- or two-factor…
This paper extends the valuation and optimal surrender framework for variable annuities with guaranteed minimum benefits in a L\'evy equity market environment by incorporating a stochastic interest rate described by the Hull-White model.…
The stochastic variational approach for geophysical fluid dynamics was introduced by Holm (Proc Roy Soc A, 2015) as a framework for deriving stochastic parameterisations for unresolved scales. This paper applies the variational stochastic…
This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…
Multistage stochastic programming provides a modeling framework for sequential decision-making problems that involve uncertainty. One typically overlooked aspect of this methodology is how uncertainty is incorporated into modeling.…
Path integral techniques for the pricing of financial options are mostly based on models that can be recast in terms of a Fokker-Planck differential equation and that, consequently, neglect jumps and only describe drift and diffusion. We…
This article present a continuous cascade model of volatility formulated as a stochastic differential equation. Two independent Brownian motions are introduced as random sources triggering the volatility cascade. One multiplicatively…
A method is developed to estimate the properties of a global hydrodynamic instability in turbulent flows from measurement data of the limit-cycle oscillations. For this purpose, the flow dynamics are separated in deterministic contributions…
We present a Bayesian non-parametric way of inferring stochastic differential equations for both regression tasks and continuous-time dynamical modelling. The work has high emphasis on the stochastic part of the differential equation, also…
Motivated by the probabilistic methods for nonlinear differential equations introduced by McKean (1975) for the Kolmogorov-Petrovski-Piskunov (KPP) equation, and by Le Jan and Sznitman (1997) for the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations,…
A two-variable stochastic model for diffusion-limited nucleation is developed using a formalism derived from fluctuating hydrodynamics. The model is a direct generalization of the standard Classical Nucleation Theory. The nucleation rate…
Unlike many deterministic PDEs, stochastic equations are not amenable to the classical variational theory of Euler-Lagrange. In this paper, we show how self-dual variational calculus leads to solutions of various stochastic partial…