Related papers: Absolutely Zero Evidence
This paper explores Bayesian estimation for categorical data, focusing on simple yet effective models that provide a foundation for applying more advanced methods accurately and reliably in real-world applications. We begin by revisiting…
Nested sampling has emerged as a valuable tool for Bayesian analysis, in particular for determining the Bayesian evidence. The method is based on a specific type of random sampling of the likelihood function and prior volume of the…
In this note I go through the `proof' of frequentistic confidence intervals and show what it logically implies concerning the value of a physical quantity given an experimental observation (nothing).
How can one meaningfully make a measurement, if the meter does not conform to any standard and its scale expands or shrinks depending on what is measured? In the present work it is argued that current evaluation practices for…
Statistical significance measures the reliability of a result obtained from a random experiment. We investigate the number of repetitions needed for a statistical result to have a certain significance. In the first step, we consider…
The t-statistic is a widely-used scale-invariant statistic for testing the null hypothesis that the mean is zero. Martingale methods enable sequential testing with the t-statistic at every sample size, while controlling the probability of…
Determining and measuring cause-effect relationships is fundamental to most scientific studies of natural phenomena. The notion of causation is distinctly different from correlation which only looks at association of trends or patterns in…
In the interpretation of experimental data, one is actually looking for plausible explanations. We look for a measure of plausibility, with which we can compare different possible explanations, and which can be combined when there are…
While P-values are widely abused, they are a useful tool for many purposes; banning them is analogous to banning scalpels because most people do not know how to perform surgery. Many reported P-values are not genuine P-values, for a variety…
Consider a random vector $(X,Y)$ and let $m(x)=E(Y|X=x)$. We are interested in testing $H_0:m\in {\cal M}_{\Theta,{\cal G}}=\{\gamma(\cdot,\theta,g):\theta \in \Theta,g\in {\cal G}\}$ for some known function $\gamma$, some compact set…
Statistical significance testing of differences in values of metrics like recall, precision and balanced F-score is a necessary part of empirical natural language processing. Unfortunately, we find in a set of experiments that many commonly…
The absolute scale of neutrino masses is very important for understanding the evolution and the structure formation of the universe as well as for nuclear and particle physics beyond the present Standard Model. Complementary to deducing…
Probability distributions can be read as simple expressions of information. Each continuous probability distribution describes how information changes with magnitude. Once one learns to read a probability distribution as a measurement scale…
Neutrosophic Statistics means statistical analysis of population or sample that has indeterminate (imprecise, ambiguous, vague, incomplete, unknown) data. For example, the population or sample size might not be exactly determinate because…
This paper presents an argument for why we are not measuring trust sufficiently in explainability, interpretability, and transparency research. Most studies ask participants to complete a trust scale to rate their trust of a model that has…
Ratios of universal enumerable semimeasures corresponding to hypotheses are investigated as a solution for statistical composite hypotheses testing if an unbounded amount of computation time can be assumed. Influence testing for discrete…
A model is proposed for the statistical analysis of arbitrary-strength quantum measurements, based on a picture of "sampling weak values" from different configurations of the system. The model is comprised of two elements: a "local weak…
It is argued that every measurement is made in a certain scale. The scale in which present measuments are made is called present scale which gives present knowledge. Quantities at the limits to present measurement may be observables in…
Permutation tests are a distribution free way of performing hypothesis tests. These tests rely on the condition that the observed data are exchangeable among the groups being tested under the null hypothesis. This assumption is easily…
An assurance case is intended to provide justifiable confidence in the truth of its top claim, which typically concerns safety or security. A natural question is then "how much" confidence does the case provide? We argue that confidence…