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In causal inference, a fundamental task is to estimate the effect resulting from a specific treatment, which is often handled with inverse probability weighting. Despite an abundance of attention to the advancement of this task, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Kuan-Hsun Wu

We consider the problem of estimating a dose-response curve. Continuous treatments arise often in practice, e.g. in the form of time spent on an operation, distance traveled to a location or dosage of a drug. Letting $A$ denote a continuous…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Matteo Bonvini , Edward H. Kennedy

We propose a novel multi-task neural network approach for estimating distributional treatment effects (DTE) in randomized experiments. While DTE provides more granular insights into the experiment outcomes over conventional methods focusing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Tomu Hirata , Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui , Shingo Uto

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is challenging, especially when treatment information is missing. Although this is a widespread problem in practice, CATE estimation with missing treatments has received little…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-19 Milan Kuzmanovic , Tobias Hatt , Stefan Feuerriegel

This paper investigates how certain relationship between observed and counterfactual distributions serves as an identifying condition for treatment effects when the treatment is endogenous, and shows that this condition holds in a range of…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-28 Sukjin Han , Haiqing Xu

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) provide strong internal validity compared with observational studies. However, selection bias threatens the external validity of randomized trials. Thus, RCT results may not apply to either broad public…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-26 Ziyue Chen , Eloise Kaizar

In this paper, we explore optimal treatment allocation policies that target distributional welfare. Most literature on treatment choice has considered utilitarian welfare based on the conditional average treatment effect (ATE). While…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-30 Yifan Cui , Sukjin Han

The inclusion of the propensity score as a covariate in Bayesian regression trees for causal inference can reduce the bias in treatment effect estimations, which occurs due to the regularization-induced confounding phenomenon. This study…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-30 Pedro Henrique Filipini dos Santos , Hedibert Freitas Lopes

This paper studies the identification and estimation of policy effects when treatment status is binary and endogenous. We introduce a new class of marginal treatment effects (MTEs) based on the influence function of the functional…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-08 Julian Martinez-Iriarte , Yixiao Sun

In semi-logarithmic regressions, treatment coefficients are often interpreted as approximations of the average treatment effect (ATE) in percentage points. This paper highlights the overlooked bias of this approximation under treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-04 Ying Zeng

We investigate large-sample properties of treatment effect estimators under unknown interference in randomized experiments. The inferential target is a generalization of the average treatment effect estimand that marginalizes over potential…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-25 Fredrik Sävje , Peter M. Aronow , Michael G. Hudgens

When examining a contrast between two interventions, longitudinal causal inference studies frequently encounter positivity violations when one or both regimes are impossible to observe for some subjects. Existing weighting methods either…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-11 Alec McClean , Iván Díaz

Marginal structural models are a popular tool for investigating the effects of time-varying treatments, but they require an assumption of no unobserved confounders between the treatment and outcome. With observational data, this assumption…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-10 Matthew Blackwell , Soichiro Yamauchi

Randomized experiments (or A/B tests) are widely used to evaluate interventions in dynamic systems such as recommendation platforms, marketplaces, and digital health. In these settings, interventions affect both current and future system…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-08 Ramesh Johari , Tianyi Peng , Wenqian Xing

Conditional effects are commonly used measures for understanding how treatment effects vary across different groups, and are often used to target treatments/interventions to groups who benefit most. In this work we review existing methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-14 Jiacheng Ge , Iván Díaz

The estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs), defined as the difference in expected outcomes between treatment and control groups, is a central topic in causal inference. This study develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Masahiro Kato , Fumiaki Kozai , Ryo Inokuchi

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

In program evaluations, units can often anticipate the implementation of a new policy before it occurs. Such anticipatory behavior can lead to units' outcomes becoming dependent on their future treatment assignments. In this paper, I employ…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-12-02 Aibo Gong

Estimating the effect of medical treatments on subject responses is one of the crucial problems in medical research. Matched-pairs designs are commonly implemented in the field of medical research to eliminate confounding and improve…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-08 Jun Wang , Wei Gao , Man-Lai Tang

Accurate heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation is essential for personalized recommendations, making it important to evaluate and compare HTE estimators. Traditional assessment methods are inapplicable due to missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-30 Zijun Gao
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