Related papers: Flexible Cholesky GARCH model with time dependent …
Multivariate space-time data are increasingly available in various scientific disciplines. When analyzing these data, one of the key issues is to describe the multivariate space-time dependencies. Under the Gaussian framework, one needs to…
We propose an approach for learning the causal structure in stochastic dynamical systems with a $1$-step functional dependency in the presence of latent variables. We propose an information-theoretic approach that allows us to recover the…
In the analysis of multivariate spatial and univariate spatio-temporal data, it is commonly recognized that asymmetric dependence may exist, which can be addressed using an asymmetric (matrix or space-time, respectively) covariance function…
Multivariate $\operatorname {COGARCH}(1,1)$ processes are introduced as a continuous-time models for multidimensional heteroskedastic observations. Our model is driven by a single multivariate L\'{e}vy process and the latent time-varying…
One of the most important features of financial time series data is volatility. There are often structural changes in volatility over time, and an accurate estimation of the volatility of financial time series requires careful…
In this paper, we consider the nonstationary matrix-valued time series with common stochastic trends. Unlike the traditional factor analysis which flattens matrix observations into vectors, we adopt a matrix factor model in order to fully…
This work proposes an algorithmic framework to learn time-varying graphs from online data. The generality offered by the framework renders it model-independent, i.e., it can be theoretically analyzed in its abstract formulation and then…
Bayesian inference for fractionally integrated exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (FIEGARCH) models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is described. A simulation study is presented to access the…
HYGARCH model is basically used to model long-range dependence in volatility. We propose Markov switch smooth-transition HYGARCH model, where the volatility in each state is a time-dependent convex combination of GARCH and FIGARCH. This…
Hybrid multiscale modelling has emerged as a useful framework for modelling complex biological phenomena. However, when accounting for stochasticity in the internal dynamics of agents, these models frequently become computationally…
While existing mathematical descriptions can accurately account for phenomena at microscopic scales (e.g. molecular dynamics), these are often high-dimensional, stochastic and their applicability over macroscopic time scales of physical…
Collected data, which is used for analysis or prediction tasks, often have a hierarchical structure, for example, data from various people performing the same task. Modeling the data's structure can improve the reliability of the derived…
We implement gradient-based variational inference routines for Wishart and inverse Wishart processes, which we apply as Bayesian models for the dynamic, heteroskedastic covariance matrix of a multivariate time series. The Wishart and…
In the independent component model, the multivariate data is assumed to be a mixture of mutually independent latent components, and in independent component analysis (ICA) the aim is to estimate these latent components. In this paper we…
This paper introduces a new sparse spatio-temporal structured Gaussian process regression framework for online and offline Bayesian inference. This is the first framework that gives a time-evolving representation of the interdependencies…
State space models (SSMs) are a flexible approach to modeling complex time series. However, inference in SSMs is often computationally prohibitive for long time series. Stochastic gradient MCMC (SGMCMC) is a popular method for scalable…
Monitoring downside risk and upside risk to the key macroeconomic indicators is critical for effective policymaking aimed at maintaining economic stability. In this paper I propose a parametric framework for modelling and forecasting…
Natural gradients can improve convergence in stochastic variational inference significantly but inverting the Fisher information matrix is daunting in high dimensions. Moreover, in Gaussian variational approximation, natural gradient…
This paper introduces a new model for panel data with Markov-switching GARCH effects. The model incorporates a series-specific hidden Markov chain process that drives the GARCH parameters. To cope with the high-dimensionality of the…
Here, we have analysed a GARCH(1,1) model with the aim to fit higher order moments for different companies' stock prices. When we assume a gaussian conditional distribution, we fail to capture any empirical data when fitting the first three…