Related papers: Flexible Cholesky GARCH model with time dependent …
Many modern spatial models express the stochastic variation component as a basis expansion with random coefficients. Low rank models, approximate spectral decompositions, multiresolution representations, stochastic partial differential…
The AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and its generalized version (GARCH) family of models have grown to encompass a wide range of specifications, each of them is designed to enhance the ability of the model to capture…
We propose Neural GARCH, a class of methods to model conditional heteroskedasticity in financial time series. Neural GARCH is a neural network adaptation of the GARCH 1,1 model in the univariate case, and the diagonal BEKK 1,1 model in the…
Ranking data are frequently obtained nowadays but there are still scarce methods for treating these data when temporally observed. The present paper contributes to this topic by proposing and developing novel models for handling time series…
In time-series analyses, particularly for finance, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are widely applied statistical tools for modelling volatility clusters (i.e., periods of increased or decreased…
Risk assessment of hurricane-driven storm surge relies on deterministic computer models that produce outputs over a large spatial domain. The surge models can often be run at a range of fidelity levels, with greater precision yielding more…
The time-evolving precision matrix of a piecewise-constant Gaussian graphical model encodes the dynamic conditional dependency structure of a multivariate time-series. Traditionally, graphical models are estimated under the assumption that…
In this paper, we introduce flexible observation-driven $\mathbb{Z}$-valued time series models constructed from mixtures of negative and non-negative components. Compared to models based on the standard Skellam distribution or on a…
Stock market indices are volatile by nature, and sudden shocks are known to affect volatility patterns. The autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and generalized ARCH (GARCH) models neglect structural breaks triggered by…
The bivariate copulas that describe the dependencies and partial dependencies of lagged variables in strictly stationary, first-order GARCH-type processes are investigated. It is shown that the copulas of symmetric GARCH processes are…
Very large spatio-temporal lattice data are becoming increasingly common across a variety of disciplines. However, estimating interdependence across space and time in large areal datasets remains challenging, as existing approaches are…
This paper introduces a spatiotemporal exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spatiotemporal E-GARCH) model, extending traditional spatiotemporal GARCH models by incorporating asymmetric volatility…
It is common for long financial time series to exhibit gradual change in the unconditional volatility. We propose a new model that captures this type of nonstationarity in a parsimonious way. The model augments the volatility equation of a…
We propose a novel probabilistic model to facilitate the learning of multivariate tail dependence of multiple financial assets. Our method allows one to construct from known random vectors, e.g., standard normal, sophisticated joint…
Generative moment matching networks (GMMNs) are introduced as dependence models for the joint innovation distribution of multivariate time series (MTS). Following the popular copula-GARCH approach for modeling dependent MTS data, a…
In this paper, we study the high-dimensional sparse directed acyclic graph (DAG) models under the empirical sparse Cholesky prior. Among our results, strong model selection consistency or graph selection consistency is obtained under more…
Scalable spatial GPs for massive datasets can be built via sparse Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) where a small number of directed edges is sufficient to flexibly characterize spatial dependence. The DAG can be used to devise fast algorithms…
We consider state and parameter estimation for a dynamical system having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. It has been shown that the robustness of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating time-invariant…
This paper studies the estimation of a large covariance matrix. We introduce a novel procedure called ChoSelect based on the Cholesky factor of the inverse covariance. This method uses a dimension reduction strategy by selecting the pattern…
This paper proposes a novel low-rank approximation to the multivariate State-Space Model. The Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) approach is applied component-wise to the independent-in-time Mat\'ern Gaussian innovation term in…