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Quantifying the uncertainty of predictions is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed under a variety of assumptions, often -- for instance, in standard conformal prediction -- relying on…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-13 Edgar Dobriban , Mengxin Yu

Black box variational inference (BBVI) with reparameterization gradients triggered the exploration of divergence measures other than the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, such as alpha divergences. In this paper, we view BBVI with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-09 Robert Bamler , Cheng Zhang , Manfred Opper , Stephan Mandt

Survival analysis aims at modeling the relationship between covariates and event occurrence with some untracked (censored) samples. In implementation, existing methods model the survival distribution with strong assumptions or in a discrete…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-25 Yu Ling , Weimin Tan , Bo Yan

Variational autoencoders (VAE) often use Gaussian or category distribution to model the inference process. This puts a limit on variational learning because this simplified assumption does not match the true posterior distribution, which is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-02-28 Ke Sun , Xiangliang Zhang

Recent contributions of semantic information theory reveal the set-element relationship between semantic and syntactic information, represented as synonymous relationships. In this paper, we propose a synonymous variational inference (SVI)…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Zijian Liang , Kai Niu , Changshuo Wang , Jin Xu , Ping Zhang

Symbolic regression discovers explicit, interpretable equations without assuming a functional form in advance. A Bayesian approach strengthens this through probability distributions over candidate expressions, thus quantifying uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 James Butterworth , Gevik Grigorian , Alejandro DiazDelaO

We study the implementation of Automatic Differentiation Variational inference (ADVI) for Bayesian inference on regression models with bridge penalization. The bridge approach uses $\ell_{\alpha}$ norm, with $\alpha \in (0, +\infty)$ to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-08 Carlos Tadeu Pagani Zanini , Helio dos Santos Migon , Ronaldo Dias

Variational inference uses optimization, rather than integration, to approximate the marginal likelihood, and thereby the posterior, in a Bayesian model. Thanks to advances in computational scalability made in the last decade, variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-04 Jens Sjölund

We develop a Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference (CAVI) algorithm for Bayesian Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression with linear weight parameterizations. The model separates impact coeffcients from weighting function parameters…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Luigi Simeone

Bayesian simulation-based inference (SBI) methods are used in statistical models where simulation is feasible but the likelihood is intractable. Standard SBI methods can perform poorly in cases of model misspecification, and there has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-15 Wang Yuyan , Michael Evans , David J. Nott

Recently, particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods have gained interest because they can avoid arbitrary parametric assumptions that are common in variational inference. However, many ParVI approaches do not allow arbitrary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-12 Neale Ratzlaff , Qinxun Bai , Li Fuxin , Wei Xu

Building on the recent trend of new deep generative models known as Normalizing Flows (NF), simulation-based inference (SBI) algorithms can now efficiently accommodate arbitrary complex and high-dimensional data distributions. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-28 Julia Linhart , Alexandre Gramfort , Pedro L. C. Rodrigues

Traditional methods for spatial inference estimate smooth interpolating fields based on features measured at well-located points. When the spatial locations of some observations are missing, joint inference of the fields and locations is…

Selective inference (post-selection inference) is a methodology that has attracted much attention in recent years in the fields of statistics and machine learning. Naive inference based on data that are also used for model selection tends…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-25 Yoshiyuki Ninomiya , Yuta Umezu , Ichiro Takeuchi

Along with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, variational inference (VI) has emerged as a central computational approach to large-scale Bayesian inference. Rather than sampling from the true posterior $\pi$, VI aims at producing a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-24 Marc Lambert , Sinho Chewi , Francis Bach , Silvère Bonnabel , Philippe Rigollet

Predictive recursion is an accurate and computationally efficient algorithm for nonparametric estimation of mixing densities in mixture models. In semiparametric mixture models, however, the algorithm fails to account for any uncertainty in…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-19 Ryan Martin , Surya T. Tokdar

Estimating mutual information between continuous random variables is often intractable and extremely challenging for high-dimensional data. Recent progress has leveraged neural networks to optimize variational lower bounds on mutual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Ruizhi Liao , Daniel Moyer , Polina Golland , William M. Wells

Stochastic natural gradient variational inference (NGVI) is a popular and efficient algorithm for Bayesian inference. Despite empirical success, the convergence of this method is still not fully understood. In this work, we define and study…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Thomas Guilmeau , Hadrien Hendrikx , Florence Forbes

Variational inference (VI) is a computationally efficient and scalable methodology for approximate Bayesian inference. It strikes a balance between accuracy of uncertainty quantification and practical tractability. It excels at generative…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-15 Alex Glyn-Davies , Arnaud Vadeboncoeur , O. Deniz Akyildiz , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Mark Girolami

We propose the Sobolev Independence Criterion (SIC), an interpretable dependency measure between a high dimensional random variable X and a response variable Y . SIC decomposes to the sum of feature importance scores and hence can be used…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-01 Youssef Mroueh , Tom Sercu , Mattia Rigotti , Inkit Padhi , Cicero Dos Santos
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