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Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-01-11 Luca Bortolussi , Guido Sanguinetti

To make informed decisions in natural environments that change over time, humans must update their beliefs as new observations are gathered. Studies exploring human inference as a dynamical process that unfolds in time have focused on…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-03-03 Arthur Prat-Carrabin , Robert C. Wilson , Jonathan D. Cohen , Rava Azeredo da Silveira

To maximize future rewards in this ever-changing world, animals must be able to discover the temporal structure of stimuli and then anticipate or act correctly at the right time. How the animals perceive, maintain, and use time intervals…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-08 Zedong Bi , Changsong Zhou

Learning on temporal graphs has become a central topic in graph representation learning, with numerous benchmarks indicating the strong performance of state-of-the-art models. However, recent work has raised concerns about the reliability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Abigail J. Hayes , Tobias Schumacher , Markus Strohmaier

Detecting structure in noisy time series is a difficult task. One intuitive feature is the notion of trend. From theoretical hints and using simulated time series, we empirically investigate the efficiency of standard recurrent neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-22 Alexandre Miot , Gilles Drigout

A growing body of research indicates that structural plasticity mechanisms are crucial for learning and memory consolidation. Starting from a simple phenomenological model, we exploit a mean-field approach to develop a theoretical framework…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-06-19 Gianmarco Tiddia , Luca Sergi , Bruno Golosio

The importance of considering contextual probabilities in shaping response patterns within psychological testing is underscored, despite the ubiquitous nature of order effects discussed extensively in methodological literature. Drawing from…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-28 Andrea Bosco

This paper introduces a novel methodology that utilizes latency to unveil time-series dependence patterns. A customized statistical test detects memory dependence in event sequences by analyzing their inter-event time distributions.…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-22 Fabio Vanni , David Lambert

Current methods for pattern analysis in time series mainly rely on statistical features or probabilistic learning and inference methods to identify patterns and trends in the data. Such methods do not generalize well when applied to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-01 Yushan Huang , Yuchen Zhao , Alexander Capstick , Francesca Palermo , Hamed Haddadi , Payam Barnaghi

Learning structural information from observational data is central to producing new knowledge outside the training corpus. This holds for mechanistic understanding in scientific discovery as well as flexible test-time compositional…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Michelle Chao Chen , Moritz Miller , Bernhard Schölkopf , Siyuan Guo

Our current understanding of brain rhythms is based on quantifying their instantaneous or time-averaged characteristics. What remains unexplored, is the actual structure of the waves -- their shapes and patterns over finite timescales. To…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-05-10 Clarissa Hoffman , Jingheng Cheng , Daoyun Ji , Y. Dabaghian

We propose new concepts in order to analyze and model the dependence structure between two time series. Our methods rely exclusively on the order structure of the data points. Hence, the methods are stable under monotone transformations of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-02 Alexander Schnurr , Herold Dehling

Individual neurons often produce highly variable responses over nominally identical trials, reflecting a mixture of intrinsic "noise" and systematic changes in the animal's cognitive and behavioral state. Disentangling these sources of…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2021-11-08 Alex H. Williams , Scott W. Linderman

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-07 Satya Narayan Shukla , Benjamin M. Marlin

Random walks find applications in many areas of science and are the heart of essential network analytic tools. When defined on temporal networks, even basic random walk models may exhibit a rich spectrum of behaviours, due to the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-11-11 Julien Petit , Renaud Lambiotte , Timoteo Carletti

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Lasse Leskelä , Maximilien Dreveton

An important feature of all real-world networks is that the network structure changes over time. Due to this dynamic nature, it becomes difficult to propose suitable growth models that can explain the various important characteristic…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-02-17 Sandipan Sikdar , Niloy Ganguly , Animesh Mukherjee

There has been substantial progress in the inference of formal behavioural specifications from sample trajectories, for example, using Linear Temporal Logic (LTL). However, these techniques cannot handle specifications that correctly…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Rajarshi Roy , Yash Pote , David Parker , Marta Kwiatkowska

The ordinal patterns of a fixed number of consecutive values in a time series is the spatial ordering of these values. Counting how often a specific ordinal pattern occurs in a time series provides important insights into the properties of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-06 Annika Betken , Giorgio Micali , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

Various methods using machine and deep learning have been proposed to tackle different tasks in predictive process monitoring, forecasting for an ongoing case e.g. the most likely next event or suffix, its remaining time, or an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-14 Jari Peeperkorn , Seppe vanden Broucke , Jochen De Weerdt
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