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We consider the problem of unconstrained minimization of a smooth objective function in $\R^n$ in a setting where only function evaluations are possible. While importance sampling is one of the most popular techniques used by machine…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-04-03 Adel Bibi , El Houcine Bergou , Ozan Sener , Bernard Ghanem , Peter Richtárik

In this paper we present a novel approach towards variance reduction for discretised diffusion processes. The proposed approach involves specially constructed control variates and allows for a significant reduction in the variance for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-19 Denis Belomestny , Stefan Häfner , Tigran Nagapetyan , Mikhail Urusov

Subsampling is a widely used and effective approach for addressing the computational challenges posed by massive datasets. Substantial progress has been made in developing non-uniform, probability-based subsampling schemes that prioritize…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Dingyi Wang , Haiying Wang , Qingpei Hu

Finding and sampling rare trajectories in dynamical systems is a difficult computational task underlying numerous problems and applications. In this paper we show how to construct Metropolis- Hastings Monte Carlo methods that can…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2017-10-16 Jorge C. Leitao , Joao M. Viana Parente Lopes , Eduardo G. Altmann

We propose a new method for estimating rare event probabilities when independent samples are available. It is assumed that the underlying probability measures satisfy a large deviations principle with a scaling parameter $\varepsilon$ that…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-06 Paul Dupuis , Guo-Jhen Wu , Michael Snarski

Machine learning optimization often depends on stochastic gradient descent, where the precision of gradient estimation is vital for model performance. Gradients are calculated from mini-batches formed by uniformly selecting data samples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-29 Corentin Salaün , Xingchang Huang , Iliyan Georgiev , Niloy J. Mitra , Gurprit Singh

Adaptive Monte Carlo schemes developed over the last years usually seek to ensure ergodicity of the sampling process in line with MCMC tradition. This poses constraints on what is possible in terms of adaptation. In the general case…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-22 Ingmar Schuster

In modern data analysis, random sampling is an efficient and widely-used strategy to overcome the computational difficulties brought by large sample size. In previous studies, researchers conducted random sampling which is according to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-05 Rong Zhu

In this paper we use splitting technique to estimate the probability of hitting a rare but critical set by the continuous component of a switching diffusion. Instead of following classical approach we use Wonham filter to achieve multiple…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-19 Anindya Goswami , François Le Gland

In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm for rare event estimation based on adaptive importance sampling. We consider a smoothed version of the optimal importance sampling density, which is approximated by an ensemble of interacting…

Computation · Statistics 2023-04-19 Konstantin Althaus , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

In various practical situations, we encounter data from stochastic processes which can be efficiently modelled by an appropriate parametric model for subsequent statistical analyses. Unfortunately, the most common estimation and inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-12 Rohan Hore , Abhik Ghosh

The development of enhanced sampling methods has greatly extended the scope of atomistic simulations, allowing long-time phenomena to be studied with accessible computational resources. Many such methods rely on the identification of an…

Computational Physics · Physics 2022-06-08 Luigi Bonati , GiovanniMaria Piccini , Michele Parrinello

This paper proposes niching importance sampling, a framework that combines concepts from reliability analysis, e.g. Markov chains, importance sampling, and relative cross entropy minimisation, with niching techniques from evolutionary…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-09 Hugh J. Kinnear , F. A. DiazDelaO

The Cross Entropy method is a well-known adaptive importance sampling method for rare-event probability estimation, which requires estimating an optimal importance sampling density within a parametric class. In this article we estimate an…

Computation · Statistics 2013-10-15 Z. I. Botev , A. Ridder , L. Rojas-Nandayapa

Recent works have proposed optimal subsampling algorithms to improve computational efficiency in large datasets and to design validation studies in the presence of measurement error. Existing approaches generally fall into two categories:…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-25 Jasper B. Yang , Thomas Lumley , Bryan E. Shepherd , Pamela A. Shaw

Multiple Importance Sampling (MIS) methods approximate moments of complicated distributions by drawing samples from a set of proposal distributions. Several ways to compute the importance weights assigned to each sample have been recently…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-16 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

We study a large deviation principle for a system of stochastic reaction--diffusion equations (SRDEs) with a separation of fast and slow components and small noise in the slow component. The derivation of the large deviation principle is…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-02 Wenqing Hu , Michael Salins , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We consider multiple time scales systems of stochastic differential equations with small noise in random environments. We prove a quenched large deviations principle with explicit characterization of the action functional. The random medium…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-23 Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

This paper provides an elementary, self-contained analysis of diffusion-based sampling methods for generative modeling. In contrast to existing approaches that rely on continuous-time processes and then discretize, our treatment works…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-25 Galen Reeves , Henry D. Pfister

Freidlin-Wentzell theory of large deviations can be used to compute the likelihood of extreme or rare events in stochastic dynamical systems via the solution of an optimization problem. The approach gives exponential estimates that often…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-09-17 Tobias Grafke , Tobias Schäfer , Eric Vanden-Eijnden