Related papers: Bayesian estimation for large scale multivariate O…

Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…

Given the cost and duration of phase III and phase IV clinical trials, the development of statistical methods for go/no-go decisions is vital. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian methodology to compute the probability of success based on…

Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular over the last few decades as a tool for reasoning under uncertainty in fields as diverse as medicine, biology, epidemiology, economics and the social sciences. This is especially true…

This article proposes a Bayesian approach to regression with a continuous scalar response and an undirected network predictor. Undirected network predictors are often expressed in terms of symmetric adjacency matrices, with rows and columns…

Brain connectivity can be estimated through a wide number of analyses applied to electroencephalographic (EEG) data. However, substantial heterogeneity in the implementation of connectivity methods exist. Heterogeneity in conceptualization…

Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…

Bayesian methods lie at the heart of modern data science and provide a powerful scaffolding for estimation in data-constrained settings and principled quantification and propagation of uncertainty. Yet in many real-world use cases where…

This article focuses on the problem of predicting a response variable based on a network-valued predictor. Our motivation is the development of interpretable and accurate predictive models for cognitive traits and neuro-psychiatric…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have received an increased interest in the last years. In BNNs, a complete posterior distribution of the unknown weight and bias parameters of the network is produced during the training stage. This…

In recent years there has been significant progress in algorithms and methods for inducing Bayesian networks from data. However, in complex data analysis problems, we need to go beyond being satisfied with inducing networks with high…

In recent years there has been substantial development in algorithms for quantum phase estimation. In this work we provide a new approach to online Bayesian phase estimation that achieves Heisenberg limited scaling that requires…

Significance testing aims to determine whether a proposition about the population distribution is the truth or not given observations. However, traditional significance testing often needs to derive the distribution of the testing…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide a formalism to quantify and calibrate uncertainty in deep learning. Current inference approaches for BNNs often resort to few-sample estimation for scalability, which can harm predictive performance,…

We study pairwise Ising models for describing the statistics of multi-neuron spike trains, using data from a simulated cortical network. We explore efficient ways of finding the optimal couplings in these models and examine their…

In this work, we will investigate a Bayesian approach to estimating the parameters of long memory models. Long memory, characterized by the phenomenon of hyperbolic autocorrelation decay in time series, has garnered significant attention.…

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) can estimate the uncertainty in predictions, as opposed to non-Bayesian neural networks (NNs). However, BNNs have been far less widely used than non-Bayesian NNs in practice since they need iterative NN…

A major challenge in sample-based inference (SBI) for Bayesian neural networks is the size and structure of the networks' parameter space. Our work shows that successful SBI is possible by embracing the characteristic relationship between…

We propose a new, two-step empirical Bayes-type of approach for neural networks. We show in context of the nonparametric regression model that the procedure (up to a logarithmic factor) provides optimal recovery of the underlying functional…

Networks underpin systems that range from finance to biology, yet their structure is often only partially observed. Current reconstruction methods typically fit the parameters of a model anew to each snapshot, thus offering no guidance to…

Data-driven modeling of non-Markovian dynamics is a recent topic of research with applications in many fields such as climate research, molecular dynamics, biophysics, or wind power modeling. In the frequently used standard Langevin…