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Continuous-time state-space models (SSMs) are flexible tools for analysing irregularly sampled sequential observations that are driven by an underlying state process. Corresponding applications typically involve restrictive assumptions…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters, are simulation-based recursive algorithms for the approximation of the a posteriori probability measures generated by state-space dynamical models. At any given time $t$,…
The assumption that response and predictor belong to the same statistical unit may be violated in practice. Unbiased estimation and recovery of true label ordering based on unlabeled data are challenging tasks and have attracted increasing…
In nonlinear state-space models, sequential learning about the hidden state can proceed by particle filtering when the density of the observation conditional on the state is available analytically (e.g. Gordon et al., 1993). This condition…
We present a model for exact recursive Bayesian filtering based on lifted multiset states. Combining multisets with lifting makes it possible to simultaneously exploit multiple strategies for reducing inference complexity when compared to…
A recursive state estimation procedure is derived for a linear time varying system with both parametric uncertainties and stochastic measurement droppings. This estimator has a similar form as that of the Kalman filter with intermittent…
We consider the problem of reconstructing a signal from multi-layered (possibly) non-linear measurements. Using non-rigorous but standard methods from statistical physics we present the Multi-Layer Approximate Message Passing (ML-AMP)…
We tackle the problem of multiscale regression for predictors that are spatially or temporally indexed, or with a pre-specified multiscale structure, with a Bayesian modular approach. The regression function at the finest scale is expressed…
Multi-scale problems, where variables of interest evolve in different time-scales and live in different state-spaces, can be found in many fields of science. Here, we introduce a new recursive methodology for Bayesian inference that aims at…
In this paper, we present a randomized version of the finite set statistics (FISST) Bayesian recursions for multi-object tracking problems. We propose a hypothesis level derivation of the FISST equations that shows that the multi-object…
This paper presents a probabilistic generalization of the Generalized Optimal Sub-Pattern Assignment (GOSPA) metric, termed P-GOSPA. The GOSPA metric has been widely used to evaluate the distance between finite sets, particularly in…
Model-based filtering is often carried out while subject to an imperfect model, as learning partially-observable stochastic systems remains a challenge. Recent work on Bayesian inference found that tempering the likelihood or full posterior…
Many computer vision applications involve modeling complex spatio-temporal patterns in high-dimensional motion data. Recently, restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) have been widely used to capture and represent spatial patterns in a single…
The posterior Cram\'er-Rao lower bound (PCRLB) derived in Tichavsk\'y et al., 1998, provides a bound on the mean square error (MSE) obtained with any non-linear state filter. Computing the PCRLB involves solving complex, multi-dimensional…
The iterated posterior linearization filter (IPLF) is an algorithm for Bayesian state estimation that performs the measurement update using iterative statistical regression. The main result behind IPLF is that the posterior approximation is…
This paper presents parallel-in-time state estimation methods for systems with Slow-Rate inTegrated Measurements (SRTM). Integrated measurements are common in various applications, and they appear in analysis of data resulting from…
Forecasting in the real world requires integrating structured time-series data with unstructured textual information, but existing methods are architecturally limited by fixed input/output horizons and are unable to model or quantify…
The problem of state estimation has a long history with many successful algorithms that allow analytical derivation or approximation of posterior filtering distribution given the noisy observations. This report tries to conclude previous…
State estimation that combines observational data with mathematical models is central to many applications and is commonly addressed through filtering methods, such as ensemble Kalman filters. In this article, we examine the signal-tracking…
In this paper, we develop a Bayesian multiscale approach based on a multiscale finite element method. Because of scale disparity in many multiscale applications, computational models can not resolve all scales. Various subgrid models are…