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Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to deemphasize…
We analyze the occurrence and the values of record-breaking temperatures in daily and monthly temperature observations. Our aim is to better understand and quantify the statistics of temperature records in the context of global warming.…
Determining whether Global Average Temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or is a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact and forecasting studies of climate change. In…
There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…
Various interpretations of the notion of a trend in the context of global warming are discussed, contrasting the difference between viewing a trend as the deterministic response to an external forcing and viewing it as a slow variation…
Changes in the atmospheric composition alter the magnitude and partitioning between the downward propagating solar and atmospheric longwave radiative fluxes heating the Earth's surface. These changes are computed by radiative transfer codes…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…
We use continuous wavelet tools to characterize the dynamics of climate change across time and frequencies. This approach allows us to capture the changing patterns in the relationship between global mean temperature anomalies and climate…
Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…
Radiative forcing drives warming in the Earth system, leading to changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and associated radiative feedbacks. The link between changes in the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiative flux and SST patterns,…
Several complicated non-linear models exist which simulate the physical processes leading to fluctuations in global climate. Some of these more advanced models use observations to constrain various parameters involved. However, they tend to…
We present a mathematical analysis of records drawn from independent random variables with a drifting mean. To leading order the change in the record rate is proportional to the ratio of the drift velocity to the standard deviation of the…
The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the…
Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning…
We argue that earth's short-term temperature anomalies and the solar flare intermittency are linked. The analysis is based upon the study of the scaling of both the spreading and the entropy of the diffusion generated by the fluctuations of…
We review recent results on the appearance of long-term persistence in climatic records and their relevance for the evaluation of global climate models and rare events.The persistence can be characterized, for example, by the correlation…
A Chow test for structural breaks in the surface temperature series is used to investigate two common claims about global warming. Quirk (2009) proposed that the increase in Australian temperature from 1910 to the present was largely…
We study temporally persistent and spatially extended extreme events of temperature anomalies, i.e. heat waves and cold spells, using large deviation theory. To this end, we consider a simplified yet Earth-like general circulation model of…
It is shown that global climate exhibits chaotic response to solar forcing variability in a vast range of timescales: from annual to multi-millennium. Unlike linear systems, where periodic forcing leads to periodic response, nonlinear…
A simple 3-parameter random walk model for monthly fluctuations $\triangle T$ of a temperature $T$ is introduced. Applied to a time range of 170 years, temperature fluctuations of the model produce for about 14\% of the runs warming that…