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Exploiting the theory of state space models, we derive the exact expressions of the information transfer, as well as redundant and synergistic transfer, for coupled Gaussian processes observed at multiple temporal scales. All of the terms,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-21 Luca Faes , Daniele Marinazzo , Sebastiano Stramaglia

We address the problem of continual learning in multi-task Gaussian process (GP) models for handling sequential input-output observations. Our approach extends the existing prior-posterior recursion of online Bayesian inference, i.e.\ past…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-04 Pablo Moreno-Muñoz , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez , Mauricio A. Álvarez

Cox processes model overdispersed point process data via a latent stochastic intensity, but both nonparametric estimation of the intensity model and posterior inference over intensity paths are typically intractable, relying on expensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Xinlong Du , Harsha Honnappa , Vinayak Rao

The log Gaussian Cox process is a flexible class of Cox processes, whose intensity surface is stochastic, for incorporating complex spatial and time structure of point patterns. The straightforward inference based on Markov chain Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2016-12-02 Shinichiro Shirota , Alan. E. Gelfand

This paper presents an efficient variational inference framework for deriving a family of structured gaussian process regression network (SGPRN) models. The key idea is to incorporate auxiliary inducing variables in latent functions and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-19 Rui Meng , Herbie Lee , Kristofer Bouchard

In this paper, we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian inference for Cox processes in which the intensity function is driven by a diffusion process. The novelty lies in the fact that no discretization error is involved, despite…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-06 Flavio B. Gonçalves , Krzysztof G. Łatuszyński , Gareth O. Roberts

We develop a scalable class of models for latent variable estimation using composite Gaussian processes, with a focus on derivative Gaussian processes. We jointly model multiple data sources as outputs to improve the accuracy of latent…

We analyze the dynamics of an algorithm for approximate inference with large Gaussian latent variable models in a student-teacher scenario. To model nontrivial dependencies between the latent variables, we assume random covariance matrices…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-26 Burak Çakmak , Manfred Opper

Effective forces -- derived from experimental or {\it in silico} molecular dynamics time traces -- are critical in developing reduced and computationally efficient descriptions of otherwise complex dynamical problems. Thus, designing…

Biological Physics · Physics 2019-08-29 J Shepard Bryan , Ioannis Sgouralis , Steve Pressé

Credible forecasting and representation learning of dynamical systems are of ever-increasing importance for reliable decision-making. To that end, we propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Petar Bevanda , Max Beier , Armin Lederer , Alexandre Capone , Stefan Sosnowski , Sandra Hirche

Multiple change point (MCP) detection in non-stationary time series is challenging due to the variety of underlying patterns. To address these challenges, we propose a novel algorithm that integrates Active Learning (AL) with Deep Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Hao Zhao , Rong Pan

Multi-output Gaussian process (MOGP) regression allows modelling dependencies among multiple correlated response variables. Similarly to standard Gaussian processes, MOGPs are sensitive to model misspecification and outliers, which can…

This paper develops methodology that provides a toolbox for routinely fitting complex models to realistic spatial point pattern data. We consider models that are based on log-Gaussian Cox processes and include local interaction in these by…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-10 Janine B. Illian , Sigrunn H. Sørbye , Håvard Rue

Aggregated data is commonplace in areas such as epidemiology and demography. For example, census data for a population is usually given as averages defined over time periods or spatial resolutions (cities, regions or countries). In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-20 Fariba Yousefi , Michael Thomas Smith , Mauricio A. Álvarez

Recently there has been an increasing interest in methods that deal with multiple outputs. This has been motivated partly by frameworks like multitask learning, multisensor networks or structured output data. From a Gaussian processes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2009-11-30 Mauricio A. Álvarez , Neil D. Lawrence

Analyzing multivariate time series data is important to predict future events and changes of complex systems in finance, manufacturing, and administrative decisions. The expressiveness power of Gaussian Process (GP) regression methods has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-23 Anh Tong , Jaesik Choi

Spatio-temporal point process models play a central role in the analysis of spatially distributed systems in several disciplines. Yet, scalable inference remains computa- tionally challenging both due to the high resolution modelling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-07 Botond Cseke , Andrew Zammit Mangion , Tom Heskes , Guido Sanguinetti

Gaussian processes (GPs) are pervasive in functional data analysis, machine learning, and spatial statistics for modeling complex dependencies. Modern scientific data sets are typically heterogeneous and often contain multiple known…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-19 Didong Li , Andrew Jones , Sudipto Banerjee , Barbara E. Engelhardt

The Linear Model of Co-regionalization (LMC) is a very general multitask gaussian process model for regression or classification. While its expressiveness and conceptual simplicity are appealing, naive implementations have cubic complexity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Olivier Truffinet , Karim Ammar , Jean-Philippe Argaud , Bertrand Bouriquet

We consider evidence integration from potentially dependent observation processes under varying spatio-temporal sampling resolutions and noise levels. We develop a multi-resolution multi-task (MRGP) framework while allowing for both…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-06 Oliver Hamelijnck , Theodoros Damoulas , Kangrui Wang , Mark Girolami