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Bayesian networks are basic graphical models, used widely both in statistics and artificial intelligence. These statistical models of conditional independence structure are described by acyclic directed graphs whose nodes correspond to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2010-12-01 Raymond Hemmecke , Silvia Lindner , Milan Studený

Robustness of decision rules to shifts in the data-generating process is crucial to the successful deployment of decision-making systems. Such shifts can be viewed as interventions on a causal graph, which capture (possibly hypothetical)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-20 Benjie Wang , Clare Lyle , Marta Kwiatkowska

Uncovering the underlying causal mechanisms of complex real-world systems remains a significant challenge, as these systems often entail high data collection costs and involve unknown interventions. We introduce MetaCaDI, the first…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-28 Hans Jarett Ong , Yoichi Chikahara , Tomoharu Iwata

We study the problem of causal discovery through targeted interventions. Starting from few observational measurements, we follow a Bayesian active learning approach to perform those experiments which, in expectation with respect to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-10 Julius von Kügelgen , Paul K Rubenstein , Bernhard Schölkopf , Adrian Weller

Causal discovery from observational and interventional data is challenging due to limited data and non-identifiability: factors that introduce uncertainty in estimating the underlying structural causal model (SCM). Selecting experiments…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-24 Panagiotis Tigas , Yashas Annadani , Andrew Jesson , Bernhard Schölkopf , Yarin Gal , Stefan Bauer

Ensuring safe operation of safety-critical complex systems interacting with their environment poses significant challenges, particularly when the system's world model relies on machine learning algorithms to process the perception input. A…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Roman Gansch , Lina Putze , Tjark Koopmann , Jan Reich , Christian Neurohr

This paper describes a Bayesian method for combining an arbitrary mixture of observational and experimental data in order to learn causal Bayesian networks. Observational data are passively observed. Experimental data, such as that produced…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Gregory F. Cooper , Changwon Yoo

Graphical models are widely used to study biological networks. Interventions on network nodes are an important feature of many experimental designs for the study of biological networks. In this paper we put forward a causal variant of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-17 Simon E. F. Spencer , Steven M. Hill , Sach Mukherjee

We investigate the asymptotic properties of Bayesian bivariate causal discovery for Gaussian Linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs) with heteroscedastic noise. We demonstrate that with purely observational data, the posterior distribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-30 Valentinian Lungu , Anish Dhir , Mark van der Wilk , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

In scientific domains -- from biology to the social sciences -- many questions boil down to \textit{What effect will we observe if we intervene on a particular variable?} If the causal relationships (e.g.~a causal graph) are known, it is…

Identifying causal parameters from observational data is fraught with subtleties due to the issues of selection bias and confounding. In addition, more complex questions of interest, such as effects of treatment on the treated and mediated…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-17 Ilya Shpitser , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

In this note we explore a fully unsupervised deep-learning framework for simulating non-linear structural equation models from observational training data. The main contribution of this note is an architecture for applying moment-matching…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-28 Michael Park

We conjecture that the worst case number of experiments necessary and sufficient to discover a causal graph uniquely given its observational Markov equivalence class can be specified as a function of the largest clique in the Markov…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Frederick Eberhardt

Learning causal relations from observational data is a fundamental problem with wide-ranging applications across many fields. Constraint-based methods infer the underlying causal structure by performing conditional independence tests.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Marc Franquesa Monés , Jiaqi Zhang , Caroline Uhler

Understanding causal relationships between variables is a fundamental problem with broad impact in numerous scientific fields. While extensive research has been dedicated to learning causal graphs from data, its complementary concept of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Jiaqi Zhang , Kirankumar Shiragur , Caroline Uhler

We study causal representation learning, the task of inferring latent causal variables and their causal relations from high-dimensional mixtures of the variables. Prior work relies on weak supervision, in the form of counterfactual pre- and…

It is common practice in using regression type models for inferring causal effects, that inferring the correct causal relationship requires extra covariates are included or ``adjusted for''. Without performing this adjustment erroneous…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-18 David Rohde

A Random Graph is a random object which take its values in the space of graphs. We take advantage of the expressibility of graphs in order to model the uncertainty about the existence of causal relationships within a given set of variables.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Mauricio Gonzalez-Soto , Ivan R. Feliciano-Avelino , L. Enrique Sucar , Hugo J. Escalante Balderas

Causal discovery is a major task with the utmost importance for machine learning since causal structures can enable models to go beyond pure correlation-based inference and significantly boost their performance. However, finding causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Andreas Sauter , Erman Acar , Vincent François-Lavet

We introduce priors and algorithms to perform Bayesian inference in Gaussian models defined by acyclic directed mixed graphs. Such a class of graphs, composed of directed and bi-directed edges, is a representation of conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-02 Ricardo Silva , Zoubin Ghahramani