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This article considers Bayesian model inference on binary model spaces. Binary model spaces are used by a large class of models, including graphical models, variable selection, mixture distributions, and decision trees. Traditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Lucas Vogels , Reza Mohammadi , Marit Schoonhoven , Sinan Yildirim , Ilker Birbil

State-space models are ubiquitous in the statistical literature since they provide a flexible and interpretable framework for analyzing many time series. In most practical applications, the state-space model is specified through a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-18 Thi Tuyet Trang Chau , Pierre Ailliot , Valérie Monbet

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms were originally designed for estimating intractable conditional expectations within state-space models, but are now routinely used to generate approximate samples in the context of general-purpose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-11 Jonathan H. Huggins , Daniel M. Roy

In conducting non-linear dimensionality reduction and feature learning, it is common to suppose that the data lie near a lower-dimensional manifold. A class of model-based approaches for such problems includes latent variables in an unknown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-20 Deborshee Sen , Theodore Papamarkou , David Dunson

Online, sample-based planning algorithms for POMDPs have shown great promise in scaling to problems with large state spaces, but they become intractable for large action and observation spaces. This is particularly problematic in multiagent…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-12-23 Christopher Amato , Frans A. Oliehoek

Very large spatio-temporal lattice data are becoming increasingly common across a variety of disciplines. However, estimating interdependence across space and time in large areal datasets remains challenging, as existing approaches are…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-20 Philipp Hunziker , Julian Wucherpfennig , Aya Kachi , Nils-Christian Bormann

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods remain the mainstay of Bayesian estimation of structural equation models (SEM), though they often incur a high computational cost. We present a bespoke approximate Bayesian approach to SEM, drawing on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Haziq Jamil , Håvard Rue

Variational Bayesian inference is an important machine-learning tool that finds application from statistics to robotics. The goal is to find an approximate probability density function (PDF) from a chosen family that is in some sense…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-27 Timothy D. Barfoot , Gabriele M. T. D'Eleuterio

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Andrew Millard , Zheng Zhao , Joshua Murphy , Simon Maskell

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-19 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

Bayesian inference is useful to obtain a predictive distribution with a small generalization error. However, since posterior distributions are rarely evaluated analytically, we employ the variational Bayesian inference or sampling method to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Yohei Saito , Shun Kimura , Koujin Takeda

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

Despite recent advances, sampling-based inference for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) remains a significant challenge in probabilistic deep learning. While sampling-based approaches do not require a variational distribution assumption,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Emanuel Sommer , Jakob Robnik , Giorgi Nozadze , Uros Seljak , David Rügamer

State space models are well-known for their versatility in modeling dynamic systems that arise in various scientific disciplines. Although parametric state space models are well studied, nonparametric approaches are much less explored in…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-07-23 Satyaki Mazumder , Sourabh Bhattacharya

The present paper proposes a novel Bayesian, computational strategy in the context of model-based inverse problems in elastostatics. On one hand we attempt to provide probabilistic estimates of the material properties and their spatial…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-21 P. S. Koutsourelakis

While stochastic variational inference is relatively well known for scaling inference in Bayesian probabilistic models, related methods also offer ways to circumnavigate the approximation of analytically intractable expectations. The key…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-08 David A. Knowles

We propose a machine learning framework for parameter estimation of single mode Gaussian quantum states. Under a Bayesian framework, our approach estimates parameters of suitable prior distributions from measured data. For phase-space…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-08-16 Neel Kanth Kundu , Matthew R. McKay , Ranjan K. Mallik

Discrete Markov random fields are undirected graphical models that capture complex conditional dependencies between discrete variables. Conducting exact posterior inference in these models is often computationally challenging because…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Giuseppe Arena , Maarten Marsman

Identifying the active factors that have significant impacts on the output of the complex system is an important but challenging variable selection problem in computer experiments. In this paper, a Bayesian hierarchical Gaussian process…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-18 Xiao Yao , Ning Jianhui , Qin Hong

We develop a model-based empirical Bayes approach to variable selection problems in which the number of predictors is very large, possibly much larger than the number of responses (the so-called 'large p, small n' problem). We consider the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-14 Haim Y. Bar , James G. Booth , Martin T. Wells