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In this paper, we derive a novel procedure for set-membership estimation of dynamical systems affected by stochastic noise with unbounded support. Employing a bound on the sample covariance matrix, we are able to provide a finite- sample…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-20 Felix Brändle , Nicolas Chatzikiriakos , Andrea Iannelli , Frank Allgöwer

This paper considers parameter estimation for nonlinear state-space models, which is an important but challenging problem. We address this challenge by employing a variational inference (VI) approach, which is a principled method that has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-15 Jarrad Courts , Adrian Wills , Thomas Schön , Brett Ninness

This paper deals with the identification of linear stochastic dynamical systems, where the unknowns include system coefficients and noise variances. Conventional approaches that rely on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) require…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-18 Jinwen Xu , Qin Lu , Yaakov Bar-Shalom

We develop a general framework for state estimation in systems modeled with noise-polluted continuous time dynamics and discrete time noisy measurements. Our approach is based on maximum likelihood estimation and employs the calculus of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-16 Griffin M. Kearney , Makan Fardad

Structural identification and damage detection can be generalized as the simultaneous estimation of input forces, physical parameters, and dynamical states. Although Kalman-type filters are efficient tools to address this problem, the…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-04 Daniz Teymouri , Omid Sedehi , Lambros S. Katafygiotis , Costas Papadimitriou

This paper introduces new techniques for using convex optimization to fit input-output data to a class of stable nonlinear dynamical models. We present an algorithm that guarantees consistent estimates of models in this class when a small…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-03-19 Mark M. Tobenkin , Ian R. Manchester , Alexandre Megretski

Nonlinear state-space identification for dynamical systems is most often performed by minimizing the simulation error to reduce the effect of model errors. This optimization problem becomes computationally expensive for large datasets.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-29 Gerben Beintema , Roland Toth , Maarten Schoukens

Modeling real-world systems requires accounting for noise - whether it arises from unpredictable fluctuations in financial markets, irregular rhythms in biological systems, or environmental variability in ecosystems. While the behavior of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Matteo Bosso , Giovanni Franzese , Kushal Swamy , Maarten Theulings , Alejandro M. Aragón , Farbod Alijani

This paper discusses a novel initialization algorithm for the estimation of nonlinear state-space models. Good initial values for the model parameters are obtained by identifying separately the linear dynamics and the nonlinear terms in the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-04-25 A. Marconato , J. Sjöberg , J. A. K. Suykens , J. Schoukens

This paper describes recursive algorithms for state estimation of linear dynamical systems when measurements are noisy with unknown bias and/or outliers. For situations with noisy and biased measurements, algorithms are proposed that…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-11 Krishan Mohan Nagpal

The problem of determining the mathematical model of the dynamics of multi-dimensional control systems in the presence of noise under the condition that the correlation functions cannot be found. Known statistical dynamics of linear systems…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2013-01-29 V. N. Tibabishev

Motivated by the maneuvering target tracking with sensors such as radar and sonar, this paper considers the joint and recursive estimation of the dynamic state and the time-varying process noise covariance in nonlinear state space models.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-05-09 Hua Lan , Jinjie Hu , Zengfu Wang , Qiang Cheng

The classical approach to linear system identification is given by parametric Prediction Error Methods (PEM). In this context, model complexity is often unknown so that a model order selection step is needed to suitably trade-off bias and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-03-13 Aleksandr Y. Aravkin , James V. Burke , Gianluigi Pillonetto

We develop an approach to learn an interpretable semi-parametric model of a latent continuous-time stochastic dynamical system, assuming noisy high-dimensional outputs sampled at uneven times. The dynamics are described by a nonlinear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-13 Lea Duncker , Gergo Bohner , Julien Boussard , Maneesh Sahani

This paper aims to devise a generalized maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to robustly detect signals with unknown noise statistics in multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems. In practice, there is little or even no statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-22 Ke He , Le He , Lisheng Fan , Yansha Deng , George K. Karagiannidis , Arumugam Nallanathan

This paper details how to parameterize the posterior distribution of state-space systems to generate improved optimization problems for system identification using variational inference. Three different parameterizations of the assumed…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-15 Dimas Abreu Archanjo Dutra

State estimation of dynamical systems is crucial for providing new decision-making and system automation information in different applications. However, the assumptions on the standard computational models for sensor measurements can be…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-25 Aamir Hussain Chughtai , Arslan Majal , Muhammad Tahir , Momin Uppal

While linear systems have been useful in solving problems across different fields, the need for improved performance and efficiency has prompted them to operate in nonlinear modes. As a result, nonlinear models are now essential for the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-07 Abdolvahhab Rostamijavanani , Shanwu Li , Yongchao Yang

One major challenge for living cells is the measurement and prediction of signals corrupted by noise. In general, cells need to make decisions based on their compressed representation of noisy, time-varying signals. Strategies for signal…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-07-07 Jenny Poulton , Age Tjalma , Lotte Slim , Pieter Rein ten Wolde

Block-oriented nonlinear models are popular in nonlinear modeling because of their advantages to be quite simple to understand and easy to use. To increase the flexibility of single branch block-oriented models, such as Hammerstein, Wiener,…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-08-23 Maarten Schoukens , Anna Marconato , Rik Pintelon , Gerd Vandersteen , Yves Rolain