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This paper compares three approaches to the problem of selecting among probability models to fit data (1) use of statistical criteria such as Akaike's information criterion and Schwarz's "Bayesian information criterion," (2) maximization of…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-04 William B. Poland , Ross D. Shachter

The Akaike information criterion (AIC) is a common tool for model selection. It is frequently used in violation of regularity conditions at parameter space singularities and boundaries. The expected AIC is generally not asymptotically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-09 Jonathan D. Mitchell , Elizabeth S. Allman , John A. Rhodes

Conventional likelihood-based information criteria for model selection rely on the distribution assumption of data. However, for complex data that are increasingly available in many scientific fields, the specification of their underlying…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-25 Chixiang Chen , Ming Wang , Rongling Wu , Runze Li

We develop an algorithm for model selection which allows for the consideration of a combinatorially large number of candidate models governing a dynamical system. The innovation circumvents a disadvantage of standard model selection which…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-11-01 Niall M. Mangan , J. Nathan Kutz , Steven L. Brunton , Joshua L. Proctor

Plant breeding programs use data obtained from multi-environment selection experiments to produce improved varieties with the ultimate aim of maintaining high levels of genetic gain. Selection accuracy can be improved with the use of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-13 Brian R Cullis , Alison B Smith , David GD Hughes , David Butler

Model selection is of fundamental importance to high dimensional modeling featured in many contemporary applications. Classical principles of model selection include the Kullback-Leibler divergence principle and the Bayesian principle,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-12 Jinchi Lv , Jun S. Liu

To make decisions organisms often accumulate information across multiple timescales. However, most experimental and modeling studies of decision-making focus on sequences of independent trials. On the other hand, natural environments are…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2018-06-12 Khanh P Nguyen , Kresimir Josic , Zachary P Kilpatrick

Information projections are the key building block of variational inference algorithms and are used to approximate a target probabilistic model by projecting it onto a family of tractable distributions. In general, there is no guarantee on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-10-06 Lun-Kai Hsu , Tudor Achim , Stefano Ermon

The problem of model selection is considered for the setting of interpolating estimators, where the number of model parameters exceeds the size of the dataset. Classical information criteria typically consider the large-data limit,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Liam Hodgkinson , Chris van der Heide , Robert Salomone , Fred Roosta , Michael W. Mahoney

A principled approach to understand network structures is to formulate generative models. Given a collection of models, however, an outstanding key task is to determine which one provides a more accurate description of the network at hand,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-29 Toni Vallès-Català , Tiago P. Peixoto , Roger Guimerà , Marta Sales-Pardo

Statistical evaluation aims to estimate the generalization performance of a model using held-out i.i.d.\ test data sampled from the ground-truth distribution. In supervised learning settings such as classification, performance metrics such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Shashaank Aiyer , Yishay Mansour , Shay Moran , Han Shao

We investigate the issue of post-selection inference for a fixed and a mixed parameter in a linear mixed model using a conditional Akaike information criterion as a model selection procedure. Within the framework of linear mixed models we…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-24 Gerda Claeskens , Katarzyna Reluga , Stefan Sperlich

In scientific inference problems, the underlying statistical modeling assumptions have a crucial impact on the end results. There exist, however, only a few automatic means for validating these fundamental modelling assumptions. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-21 Andreas Svensson , Dave Zachariah , Petre Stoica , Thomas B. Schön

This paper provides an elementary, self-contained analysis of diffusion-based sampling methods for generative modeling. In contrast to existing approaches that rely on continuous-time processes and then discretize, our treatment works…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-25 Galen Reeves , Henry D. Pfister

Ensembles of classification and regression trees remain popular machine learning methods because they define flexible non-parametric models that predict well and are computationally efficient both during training and testing. During…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-22 Sebastian Nowozin

The selection of optimal designs for generalized linear mixed models is complicated by the fact that the Fisher information matrix, on which most optimality criteria depend, is computationally expensive to evaluate. Our focus is on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-22 Timothy W. Waite , David C. Woods

Safely deploying machine learning models to the real world is often a challenging process. Models trained with data obtained from a specific geographic location tend to fail when queried with data obtained elsewhere, agents trained in a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Marco Federici , Ryota Tomioka , Patrick Forré

Akaike's information criterion (AIC) is a measure of the quality of a statistical model for a given set of data. We can determine the best statistical model for a particular data set by the minimization of the AIC. Since we need to evaluate…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-11-21 Keiji Kimura , Hayato Waki

The effort to understand network systems in increasing detail has resulted in a diversity of methods designed to extract their large-scale structure from data. Unfortunately, many of these methods yield diverging descriptions of the same…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-03-27 Tiago P. Peixoto

Feature selection is one of the most fundamental problems in machine learning. An extensive body of work on information-theoretic feature selection exists which is based on maximizing mutual information between subsets of features and class…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-10 Shuyang Gao , Greg Ver Steeg , Aram Galstyan