Related papers: Understanding Flash Crash Contagion and Systemic R…
We present a financial market model, characterized by self-organized criticality, that is able to generate endogenously a realistic price dynamics and to reproduce well-known stylized facts. We consider a community of heterogeneous traders,…
We consider a dynamical model of distress propagation on complex networks, which we apply to the study of financial contagion in networks of banks connected to each other by direct exposures. The model that we consider is an extension of…
Arrival processes to service systems often display fluctuations that are larger than anticipated under the Poisson assumption, a phenomenon that is referred to as overdispersion. Motivated by this, we analyze a class of discrete stochastic…
We run experimental asset markets to investigate the emergence of excess trading and the occurrence of synchronised trading activity leading to crashes in the artificial markets. The market environment favours early investment in the risky…
The analysis of contagion-diffusion processes in metapopulations is a powerful theoretical tool to study how mobility influences the spread of communicable diseases. Nevertheless, many metapopulation approaches use indistinguishable agents…
Threats on the stability of a financial system may severely affect the functioning of the entire economy, and thus considerable emphasis is placed on the analyzing the cause and effect of such threats. The financial crisis in the current…
Many dynamical systems operate in a fluctuating environment. However, even in low-dimensional setups, transitions and bifurcations have not yet been fully understood. In this Letter we focus on crises, a sudden flooding of the phase space…
In financial markets marked by inherent volatility, extreme events can result in substantial investor losses. This paper proposes a portfolio strategy designed to mitigate extremal risks. By applying extreme value theory, we evaluate the…
Inspired by recent ideas on how the analysis of complex financial risks can benefit from analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk---a major obstacle to the…
This paper investigates how similarity in the informational representation of market states among Artificial Intelligence (AI) trading agents can generate systemic instability in financial markets. We construct a structural multi-agent…
Individual risk models need to capture possible correlations as failing to do so typically results in an underestimation of extreme quantiles of the aggregate loss. Such dependence modelling is particularly important for managing credit…
We investigate the stability and robustness properties of a continuification-based strategy for the control of large-scale multiagent systems. Within continuation-based strategy, one transforms the microscopic, agent-level description of…
The drift burst hypothesis postulates the existence of short-lived locally explosive trends in the price paths of financial assets. The recent U.S. equity and treasury flash crashes can be viewed as two high-profile manifestations of such…
Studies on the propagation of malware in mobile networks have revealed that the spread of malware can be highly inhomogeneous. Platform diversity, contact list utilization by the malware, clustering in the network structure, etc. can also…
This study presents an ANWSER model (asset network systemic risk model) to quantify the risk of financial contagion which manifests itself in a financial crisis. The transmission of financial distress is governed by a heterogeneous bank…
In the context of epidemic spreading, many intricate dynamical patterns can emerge due to the cooperation of different types of pathogens or the interaction between the disease spread and other failure propagation mechanism. To unravel such…
The integration of Diffusion Models into Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) is a substantial improvement in the detection of accidents. We present a novel hybrid model integrating guidance classification with diffusion techniques. By…
This work explores the characteristics of financial contagion in networks whose links distributions approaches a power law, using a model that defines banks balance sheets from information of network connectivity. By varying the parameters…
We study a simple, solvable model that allows us to investigate effects of credit contagion on the default probability of individual firms, in both portfolios of firms and on an economy wide scale. While the effect of interactions may be…
We study resilient leader-follower consensus of multi-agent systems (MASs) in the presence of adversarial agents, where agents' communication is modeled by time-varying topologies. The objective is to develop distributed algorithms for the…