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Markov chain Monte Carlo is a class of algorithms for drawing Markovian samples from high-dimensional target densities to approximate the numerical integration associated with computing statistical expectation, especially in Bayesian…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-28 Khoa T. Tran

Gradient information on the sampling distribution can be used to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimators via Stein's method. An important application is that of estimating an expectation of a test function along the sample path of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-29 Chris J. Oates , Jon Cockayne , François-Xavier Briol , Mark Girolami

We show that the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator that is importance sampled from an exponential family is a convex function of the natural parameter of the distribution. With this insight, we propose an adaptive importance sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-12 Ernest K. Ryu , Stephen P. Boyd

Estimating the model evidence - or mariginal likelihood of the data - is a notoriously difficult task for finite and infinite mixture models and we reexamine here different Monte Carlo techniques advocated in the recent literature, as well…

Computation · Statistics 2022-05-12 Adrien Hairault , Christian P. Robert , Judith Rousseau

Boson sampling is a promising candidate for quantum supremacy. It requires to sample from a complicated distribution, and is trusted to be intractable on classical computers. Among the various classical sampling methods, the Markov chain…

Due to the potential benefits of parallelization, designing unbiased Monte Carlo estimators, primarily in the setting of randomized multilevel Monte Carlo, has recently become very popular in operations research and computational…

Computation · Statistics 2024-04-03 Guanyang Wang , Jose Blanchet , Peter W. Glynn

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used for approximate inference inside learning, but their slow mixing can be difficult to diagnose and the approximations can seriously degrade learning. To alleviate these issues, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-02-25 Jacob Steinhardt , Percy Liang

${\rm CoVaR}$ is one of the most important measures of financial systemic risks. It is defined as the risk of a financial portfolio conditional on another financial portfolio being at risk. In this paper we first develop a Monte-Carlo…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-10-13 Weihuan Huang , Nifei Lin , L. Jeff Hong

The Bayesian estimation of GARCH-family models has been typically addressed through Monte Carlo sampling. Variational Inference is gaining popularity and attention as a robust approach for Bayesian inference in complex machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-06 Martin Magris , Alexandros Iosifidis

This study introduces a computationally efficient algorithm, delayed acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo (DA-MCMC), designed to improve posterior simulation in quasi-Bayesian inference. Quasi-Bayesian methods, which do not require fully…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-16 Masahiro Tanaka

Statisticians often use Monte Carlo methods to approximate probability distributions, primarily with Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. Sequential Monte Carlo samplers are a class of algorithms that combine both techniques to…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-20 Chenguang Dai , Jeremy Heng , Pierre E. Jacob , Nick Whiteley

Importance sampling (IS) is commonly used for cross validation (CV) in Bayesian models, because it only involves reweighting existing posterior draws without needing to re-estimate the model by re-running Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-12 Geonhee Han , Andrew Gelman

Stochastic optimization in learning and inference often relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate gradients when exact computation is intractable. However, finite-time MCMC estimators are biased, and reducing this bias…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Antoine Godichon-Baggioni , Gabriel Lang , Sylvain Le Corff , Julien Stoehr , Sobihan Surendran

Bayesian models have become very popular over the last years in several fields such as signal processing, statistics, and machine learning. Bayesian inference requires the approximation of complicated integrals involving posterior…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-20 Luca Martino , Víctor Elvira

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods represent a classical set of techniques to simulate a sequence of probability measures through a simple selection/mutation mechanism. However, the associated selection functions and mutation kernels…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-16 Qiming Du , Arnaud Guyader

We introduce a class of Monte Carlo estimators that aim to overcome the rapid growth of variance with dimension often observed for standard estimators by exploiting the target's independence structure. We identify the most basic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-02 Juan Kuntz , Francesca R. Crucinio , Adam M. Johansen

Constructing unbiased estimators from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) outputs is a difficult problem that has recently received a lot of attention in the statistics and machine learning communities. However, the current unbiased MCMC…

Computation · Statistics 2022-12-27 Guanyang Wang , Tianze Wang

In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-26 Kei Ishikawa , Takashi Goda

In spite of the recent surge of interest in quantile regression, joint estimation of linear quantile planes remains a great challenge in statistics and econometrics. We propose a novel parametrization that characterizes any collection of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-07-14 Yun Yang , Surya Tokdar

The concepts of probability, statistics and stochastic theory are being successfully used in structural engineering. Markov Chain modelling is a simple stochastic process model that has found its application in both describing stochastic…

Applications · Statistics 2007-08-14 K. Balaji Rao