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Conventional causal estimands, such as the average treatment effect (ATE), capture how the mean outcome in a population or subpopulation would change if all units were assigned to treatment versus control. Real-world policy changes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-12 Xiang Zhou , Aleksei Opacic

The deployment of ever-larger machine learning models reflects a growing consensus that the more expressive the model class one optimizes over$\unicode{x2013}$and the more data one has access to$\unicode{x2013}$the more one can improve…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Tinashe Handina , Eric Mazumdar

Difference-in-differences is a common method for estimating treatment effects, and the parallel trends condition is its main identifying assumption: the trend in mean untreated outcomes is independent of the observed treatment status. In…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-09 Philip Marx , Elie Tamer , Xun Tang

We study a class of two-player repeated games with incomplete information and informational externalities. In these games, two states are chosen at the outset, and players get private information on the pair, before engaging in repeated…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-07-27 Dinah Rosenberg , Eilon Solan , Nicolas Vieille

Identifying heterogeneity in a population's response to a health or policy intervention is crucial for evaluating and informing policy decisions. We propose a novel heterogeneous treatment effect estimator in the difference-in-differences…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-24 Xinkun Nie , Chen Lu , Stefan Wager

This paper studies the interactive fixed effects (IFE) estimator in a panel-data setting with heterogeneous treatment effects. We show that, if the treatment-effect heterogeneity admits a linear factor structure, the IFE estimator could…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-01 Murilo Cardoso , Bruno Ferman , Marcelo Fernandes

We consider in discrete time, a general class of sequential stochastic dynamic games with asymmetric information with the following features. The underlying system has Markovian dynamics controlled by the agents' joint actions. Each agent's…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2023-01-16 Yi Ouyang , Hamidreza Tavafoghi , Demosthenis Teneketzis

We propose a method for estimation and inference for bounds for heterogeneous causal effect parameters in general sample selection models where the treatment can affect whether an outcome is observed and no exclusion restrictions are…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-29 Phillip Heiler

This paper estimates individual treatment effects in a triangular model with binary--valued endogenous treatments. Following the identification strategy established in Vuong and Xu (2014), we propose a two--stage estimation approach. First,…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-28 Qian Feng , Quang Vuong , Haiqing Xu

Evolutionary game theory has been successfully used to investigate the dynamics of systems, in which many entities have competitive interactions. From a physics point of view, it is interesting to study conditions under which a coordination…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-14 Dirk Helbing , Anders Johansson

Estimating the long-term effects of treatments is of interest in many fields. A common challenge in estimating such treatment effects is that long-term outcomes are unobserved in the time frame needed to make policy decisions. One approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-23 Susan Athey , Raj Chetty , Guido Imbens , Hyunseung Kang

To effectively optimize and personalize treatments, it is necessary to investigate the heterogeneity of treatment effects. With the wide range of users being treated over many online controlled experiments, the typical approach of manually…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-07 John Cai , Weinan Wang

Heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation is critical in medical research. It provides insights into how treatment effects vary among individuals, which can provide statistical evidence for precision medicine. While most existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-25 Ke Wan , Kensuke Tanioka , Toshio Shimokawa

When a researcher combines multiple instrumental variables for a single binary treatment, the monotonicity assumption of the local average treatment effects (LATE) framework can become restrictive: it requires that all units share a common…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-27 Leonard Goff

The credibility revolution advances the use of research designs that permit identification and estimation of causal effects. However, understanding which mechanisms produce measured causal effects remains a challenge. The dominant current…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-08 Jiawei Fu , Tara Slough

We study testable implications of multiple equilibria in discrete games with incomplete information. Unlike de Paula and Tang (2012), we allow the players' private signals to be correlated. In static games, we leverage independence of…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-03 Aureo de Paula , Xun Tang

This paper develops a continuous functional framework for treatment effects propagating through geographic space and economic networks. We derive a master equation from three independent economic foundations -- heterogeneous agent…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-29 Tatsuru Kikuchi

Randomized experiments are widely used to estimate the causal effects of a proposed treatment in many areas of science, from medicine and healthcare to the physical and biological sciences, from the social sciences to engineering, to public…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-30 Christina Lee Yu , Edoardo M Airoldi , Christian Borgs , Jennifer T Chayes

When the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption is violated and there is interference among units, there is not a uniquely defined Average Treatment Effect, and alternative estimands may be of interest. Among these are average unit-level…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-30 Molly Offer-Westort , Drew Dimmery

We study the consumption behaviour of an asymmetric network of heterogeneous agents in the framework of discrete choice models with stochastic decision rules. We assume that the interactions among agents are uniquely specified by their…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2007-05-23 Giulia Iori , Vassilis Koulovassilopoulos
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